Draft Day Notes: RB Era Over? (Aug 24, 2010)

I just got done with one of the very first drafts of the year. Here are some of the takeaway notes I have:

First off, here is my updated top 10:
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Drew Brees
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Peyton Manning
8. Andre Johnson
9. Randy Moss
10. Reggie Wayne

After the 4th best RB, it's a crapshoot. I guess you can make a case that Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams or whoever could be a better value pick than taking Randy Moss at 9th... But here are some of my reasons for ignoring your RB early and going elsewhere.

The running back position is stacked. This year more than ever that I can remember (I'm 25, I can remember like 10 years) has the running back position been easier to fill than this year. To my count, and to a future post, there are a total of 45 "draftable" and "playable" RB's on the board. In a 10 man league, than means 5 bench RB's will be playable to my standards (which are championship caliber standards).

There are also PLENTY of backs that I will let someone else draft. I am loving the owners who will draft two backs in the first two rounds. This year is a sucker year to get your back early.

I love to draft 5 backs within the first 10 rounds. This almost assures me that 2 of these 5 will be studs. That is all you need. With how things are at other positions, and with quality running backs being available later, I'm going to avoid a lot of players. I will probably draft the best player available regardless of position, unlike in years past where I would draft a back before the top QB or RB in a heartbeat.

I feel like there are so many backs who you can waste a first or second round pick on, who won't be starting at the end of the season. I'm not drafting Thomas Jones or Ladainian Tomlinson. I'm planning to avoid Jamaal Charles, Knowshown Moreno and Chris Wells. Matt Forte and Ryan Grant stunk last year, I'm not wasting a first round pick on one of them. I'm not drafting one of the new unknowns, Ryan Mathews, Shonn Greene, Rashard Mendenhall or Javid Best. I'll post my rankings of who I'm drafting.

If you look at the QB's, I'd say there are only 8 that I would consider 'OK' enough to start on my roster. I have only 28 draftable WR's on the board. If you take just those numbers, that means 2 QB's will be starting on someones team that I consider 'not championship worthy' and two teams will have one WR who is not worthy of being on a championship lineup. That is where I think taking a QB or WR earlier is better. I'll post these rankings soon.

On top of the overall "draftable" potential available, the NFL has changed in recent years with the running back by committee backfield. It is more rare now to find a team with just one single workhorse. Most teams are pairing two studs together, which is a good strategy for them, but not necessarily for your fantasy team.

I would also like to note that in the draft I just did, LT, Clinton Portis and Brandon Jacobs were still on the board WHEN THE DRAFT WAS OVER - A 10 team league! I had 3 running backs when Matt Forte was drafted (the 2nd overall pick last year). I took my 4th RB (LeSean McCoy) over Marion Barber, among others.

I think the era of taking RB's in picks 1-14 is over.