NCAA Basketball: My Feelings So Far...

I'm imagining a month from now: March 10th.

When trying to dominate your office-pool bracket, gather your thoughts during the February Madness. In the past I have won a bracket-pool or two. Every year I try to win, I want to win (that's the goal right?). I try to gather as much information as possible and with more and more available for everyone to soak-up, I feel like you need to start your "soaking" ASAP or at least by mid-February.

I've been playing the: "Who's Your Final Four" game with my brother for a few years now. Every once and a while (usually monthly) we give each other the four teams we think will represent the Final Four. My pre-season Final Four (had to go back to Andy's wall on Facebook to get it) was: UNC, Louisville, Texas and Duke. (Andy's was: UCONN, OU, NC, TENN. Not bad first impression picks.)

This is what I said at the time:

"Louisville will be this year's Memphis. They will have a ridiculous record like 32-2 or something, will be ranked No. 1 when UNC loses once (to Duke) and they'll have Pitno on every cover. But come tourney time, the Cardinals will choke. I love AJ Abrams, James -- Texas looks amazing. The Longhorns could represent the one and only team where TEAM is the concept and not PLAYER. UNC is unstoppable, no one has a chance. If they don't win it all it will be a joke. And Duke is due, they have a mix of what Louisville has with coach K and they have what Texas has with a TEAM. This is one of the deepest season's I can remember. A case could be made for nearly every top 25 team right now."

Very interesting and 'funny-to-look-at-now' analysis. Those picks were made in November and, of course, a lot has changed since then... UNC suffered some injuries and may not be as invincible as people suspected. Louisville struggled early in what was supposed to be a easy non-conference schedule. Texas has put out the "Leadership Wanted" sign in the window, Duke looks incredible one night then chokes another -- not sure about these picks anymore. Andy's choice of UCONN and OU could replace my picks of Texas and Louisville.

If I'm playing the game today, I'd only keep Duke as a Final Four team. I would be dumb not to put UCONN as my 'today's champion' and Blake Griffin should alone take the Sooners to the Final Four. So, let's see, that's Duke, UCONN and Oklahoma. Last, and maybe least, will be Xavier.

Yea, I know, they lost Saturday to Duk-ane (Duquesne -- X barely lost, only by 4), so taking Xavier may not look so smart right now, but that loss should be the last of the season. With only one real tough test left (Feb. 26 at St. Joe's) the Musketeers shouldn't have any more slip-ups before the A-10 Tourney.

Currently ranked No. 14 in the country with a 20-3 record, you might be thinking why Xavier? Well, to be perfectly honest, gambling on Xavier wouldn't make for the best bet. Going with UNC, Lousiville, Pitt, Memphis, UCLA or hell even Gonzaga might give you the best "odds", but how often are the odds makers correct?

The two-time defending Atlantic 10 champions returned five players on their Elite Eight team last season and have surrounded those five players with youth, upside.

Xavier has a well-rounded team (six guys average more than 20 minutes, three players score more than 10 ppg). Led by the teams oldest players B.J. Raymond and C.J. Anderson -- these guys are surrounded by young and talented TEAM players. Derrick Brown is arguably the Musketeers best player and Jason Love battles on the block better than anyone in the A-10. Did I mention that they were not only talented, but young and talented? To quote AP write Joe Kay:

"Seven-footer Kenny Frease is learning how to score inside. Point guard Terrell Holloway is getting better at making the precise pass. Shooting guard Brad Redford is confidently letting it fly from long range. Little by little, Xavier's three Froshketeers are growing up."

But what I like best about Xavier is Head Coach Sean Miller. Not to waste anybody's time, but if you don't know who he is and why he'd be a factor in bringing Xavier to the Final Four, take a look at what I took directly off the athletic department website:

"Miller has raised his career record to 93-39 (.705) in four years at the helm, including 30-7 this past season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament "Elite Eight." The 30 wins broke the school record of 28 set in the 1989-90 season. Miller was named the 2007-08 Atlantic 10 Conference Coach of the Year after leading Xavier to a 14-2 record and a second straight A-10 regular season title. The National Association of Basketball Coaches named Miller as its 2008 NABC District 10 Coach of the Year. He was a finalist for numerous National Coach of the Year awards.

Miller, the 16th head coach in Xavier history, has won 93 games and stands in fifth place for wins in school history. He is alone in first place all-time in XU history for most wins in the first four seasons as head coach.

Miller, who secured his third straight 20-win season, made his third straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Miller has won back-to-back Atlantic 10 Conference Regular Season Championships (2007 and 2008) and an A-10 Tournament Championship (2006)."

Coach Miller has had six NCAA Tournament bids in his first seven years at Xavier, all of which seem to get better each time. With an appearance in the Elite Eight in 2008, Miller and the Musketeers have their eyes set on the Final Four.

Other teams that I have on my "sleeper" radar, or teams looking to make upsets include:

LSU Tigers -- LSU's last loss was to Xavier (of all teams), overall the program is headed back in the right direction. Right now they lead the SEC with a 7-1 conference record. Marcus Thornton and Tasmin Mitchell are the main ballers, Chris Johnson is all over the glass grabbing a team high 7.9 rbg.

Villanova Wildcats -- About a month ago Villanova took a tough loss to UCONN, but has played on a tear since building a win streak that has included wins against then No. 3 PITT and a take down of No. 20 Syracuse on Saturday. Playing in the most difficult conference in the NCAA's may seem like a hindrance for the Wildcats, but it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise come mid-March when they are known to be "battle-tested". Dante Cunningham is making NBA scouts look twice.

Dayton Flyers -- Dayton is still battling for respect in the NCAA's. Dayton may make a deep run thanks to nightly contributions from 14 roster players. The Flyers have a match-up against conference foe Xavier tomorrow night, which should be a doozy.

Northern Iowa Panthers -- NIU is killing the MVC, which is a conference that has been consistently owned by Creighton or SIU. And even though NIU lost to Creighton Sunday, the Panthers seem to have a lock on the conference and therefore the automatic NCAA tourney bid. With five guys nearly averaging double-digits in scoring per night, depth (everyone on this team averages at least 1.1 ppg) and pride should carry this team far.

North Dakota State Bison -- Just like NIU, the NDSU Bison are destroying the competition in the Summit division. Get ready to start hearing about BW's: Ben Woodside and Brett Winkelman.

Utah State Aggies -- The WAC's version of NIU and NDSU is Utah State. You can also credit depth as a reason why the Aggies are cleaning up in the WAC (11-0). Utah State boasts four players averaging double-digits in scoring and gets help from everyone on the roster.


Selection Sunday: March 15