It's the third week in July and therefore the PGA Tours third major of the season. The Open Championship, known to some as just The Open and to others as The British Open represents Golf's oldest major championship (first played in 1860). This weekend marks the one tournament where no statistics, no rankings and no market value can determine who walks off the winner. The Open champion will have to string together four nearly perfect rounds of mindless and natural golf combined with an eagerness and a will to become golf's next major champion.
Without Tiger Woods in the field this weekend, the door is open for someone to step up. Here are the guys I'm going to consider and guys who I'll avoid.
Players to Consider:
1. Adam Scott -- Scott has my nod this weekend because he plays great on Thursday and Friday (his consecutive cuts streak is at 16). His scoring average before the cut is 70.88 -- good enough for 29th on Tour. Scott leads the PGA in birdie average (3.97 per round), Par Breakers (22.96%) and is also tops in the All-Around rankings (288). Scott won the Byron Nelson back in April and hopes to use the Open championship to get off the list as Best to Never Win a Major.
2. Sergio Garcia -- Not far down the list of "Best to Never Win a Major" sits Sergio Garcia. Since he finished second to Tiger Woods in '99 at Medinah, we've all been waiting for Garcia to win the big one. Last year, I wrote in an article "Did the Belly Putter Break Down?" following his British Open collapse that it was Garcia's "...lack of 'Tiger' that left him looking at the trophy and not hoisting it" (Garcia missed a putt on 18 and lost in the 4-hole playoff). Without Tiger playing in the field this week, maybe Garcia won't be reluctant to "approach his final round with the Tigeresk go-get-it attitude".
3. K.J. Choi -- It looked like Choi was primed for a breakout season when he started the year with one win and three top 10's in his first six events. There has been a little slump between The Masters in April and now (Choi has missed the cut in three of his last six events). There really isn't any explanation for why one of the best players in the world has struggled recently, so I'm going to pick him to consider this weekend. Last year at this time Choi was hot (win at Memorial, win at AT&T National, top 10 at British Open, followed by a T11th, T12th and second place). My feeling is that Choi will get back on track this weekend, just in time for the final two months of the season.
4. Anthony Kim -- This kid is good. In 2008 alone, Kim has won a combined $3.2 million and is currently ranked 5th in the FedExCup standings. Kim rarely makes a mistake, he isn't outstanding at anything in particular, but he doesn't do anything poorly. Kim ranks ninth in driving distance, 11th in birdie average, third in scoring average, 10th in par breakers, fifth in All-Around ranking and first in par 5 birdies. Kim hasn't let up since his tie for second at the Verizon back in April, since then he's posted a T19, two firsts and hasn't missed a cut. Even without Woods, Nike might be well represented on the Royal Birkdale Golf Club.
5. Justin Leonard -- Leonard is comfortably ranked sixth in the FedExCup standings, thanks to a hot start (T8th, 2nd, 5th) and a victory recently at the Stanford St. Jude. Leonard has been consistent all season, missing only one cut and finishing outside the top 50 just once (Buick Open, his last event out). An American golfer has been victorious in five of the last six Open Championships played on this course, Leonard could be the sixth.
Players to Avoid:
1. Padraig Harrington -- The 2007 Open champion was the first Irishman to win the British Open in 60 years. Despite playing in only eight events this season, Harrington has managed to capture four top 5's and seven have been top 25's. Why am I avoiding the defending champ? That's simple. Harrington hasn't played on the PGA Tour since the U.S. Open over a month ago and his before cut scoring average has been mediocre (71.65, 104th). Defending any tournament is tough, never the less the British Open -- I don't see Harrington going back-to-back.
2. Jim Furyk -- After finishing third in the FedExCup standings a year ago, this season has been a disappointment for Furyk (currently ranked 15th in points). By no means should Furyk be seen as having no chance to win this tournament, he's played well since mid-April including finishing third his last time out (at the AT&T). I'll avoid Furyk this weekend because he's had a down year, but I won't be surprised to see him post four solid rounds.
3. Rory Sabbatini -- Another player considered on the list of Best to Never Win a Major, Sabbatini hasn't really done stellar when it comes to major tournaments. Before finishing T2 at the Masters in '07, Sabbatini had been unable to record a top 25 finish in 21 career major attempts. I'm going to avoid Sabbatini because he hasn't finished four rounds of golf under par since the FBR Open back in early February (eight straight events).
4. Ernie Els -- You can all but ignore Big Easy's top 10 finish last week in the Barclays Scottish Open, and you can also ignore his improved play in recent weeks. You can even ignore the fact that Els has played this major 17 times (16 straight) and recorded 10 top 10 finishes. You can ignore his victories here and you can dismiss his three second place finishes. Why? Because Els has flat out stunk. I believe that if Els can't control his putter (29.79 putts per round, 170th on Tour), he might be exiting quickly.
5. Zach Johnson -- After having two victories and one second place finish last year, Johnson has only recorded one top 10 finish this year. And after finishing seventh in the FedExCup standings in 2007, Johnson currently sits 115th after 16 events. I'm avoiding Johnson because his scoring average in '08 is the highest it has been in his career (71.67).
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