Fantasy football championships can be won from every draft position in the first round. Owners don't always win or lose the title based on the draft order. Obviously it's nice having the No. 1 pick, but it doesn't always guarantee anything. Applying the right strategy on draft day can increase your chances of winning a fantasy championship.
Taking running backs early is the strategy that should be used by all owners. Grabbing running backs in the first two rounds can solidify a strong starting line-up. With the quality of players at other positions, like Peyton Manning and Steve Smith, drafting a position in the first round other than running back can seem very tempting -- but it's not conducive to winning.
It may appear like a wise move locking up the "sexy" quarterback or whoever is considered the top ranked player at wide receiver rather than picking the fifth or sixth best running back. In a league with a standard scoring system, drafting the best wide receiver over the tenth best running back might be a good move, but what about drafting the third best wide receiver over the 13th best running back? Statistics show that the way to draft a fantasy football team is through the running back position. Nine of the first ten players taken in leagues with traditional scoring systems should be running backs. The depth at running back is shallow, but the importance is great.
Last season, 21 running backs ran for 1,000 + yards, and the year before that 16 backs eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing. In both 2005 and 2006, eight running backs scored over ten touchdowns. Last season there were 19 receivers with 1,000 + yards and in 2005, 18 wide-outs were able to catch over 1,000 yards. In 2005, seven receivers scored ten or more touchdowns and last year it was just five (Owens - 13, Harrison - 12, Darrell Jackson, Plaxico Burress and Torry Holt - 10).
In 2005, Shaun Alexander scored 27 touchdowns and Larry Johnson scored 20 touchdowns, while the top two wide receivers, Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison combined to score 24. Last year LT and LJ combined for 45 touchdowns while the top two guys, Owens and Harrison, combined for 30. Receivers don't score nearly as many fantasy points as running backs.
Every year one or two of the elite running backs gets injuries or a roster change makes an impact to a top backs performance. Many things, including the potential for finding a gem, may incline you to draft roster other positions first. Since most fantasy owners use (for good reason) the running back heavy strategy, other owners use the opposite strategy -- pick off the top of other positions first and fill in the running backs later. I've used that strategy and been successful with it. But I don't recommend it. Filling in your roster with a two hit-or-miss running backs each week is like trying build a World Series contender with hit-or-miss starting pitchers. What tends to happen to a team with weak running backs is that point production is often sporadic. The two hit-or-miss running backs could end up netting you a total of 20 or more, but they'll average for the season a combined six per week. You'll be the highest scoring squad in your league one week and then score a league low the next. As for your first two picks -- the two stud wide receivers -- well, they aren't like running backs, their production is dependent on other things. Receivers need love from both their quarterback to get them the ball and for the opposing defensive coordinator to be nice and not double cover them every time they enter in the red zone.
As for quarterback, if you want Manning and you are able to draft him, get him -- but you don't need him.
Before drafting Manning or Tom Brady consider this; Last season Manning scored 311 fantasy points up from 240 in 2005. The 20th best quarterback was Jake Delhomme who scored 156 points less than Manning, and the 20th overall quarterback in 2005 scored 117 points less.
Marvin Harrison outscored the rest of the fantasy receivers last season with 199 fantasy points. His 199 was just 64 points more than the 20th best scoring receiver. Again in 2005, Steve Smith was the top performing fantasy wide receiver and scored 147, the 20th best wide receiver scored 79 - only 68 points less than Smith.
Finally, in 2005 the top running back scored 253 points, while the 20th best running back scored 86 points, a difference of 167 points. Last year's numbers might have been a bit skewed because Tomlinson had a record breaking season, but the second best running back scored 162 more points than the 21st best.
2005:
QB: 20th best scored 117 points less than the 1st overallWR: 20th best scored 68 points less than the 1st overallRB: 20th best scored 167 points less than the 1st overall
2006:
QB: 20th best scored 156 points less than the 1st overallWR: 20th best scored 64 points less than the 1st overallRB: 21st best scored 162 points less than the 2nd overall
What this all means is that the wide receiver and quarterback position is much deeper than the running back position. Passing up on a passer in the first round or even better, waiting to draft your wide receivers until later into the draft is a great strategy. Passing up on the top quarterback on your cheat chart to draft the tenth best running back may not feel right inside your soul, but it is the proper strategy to ensure fantasy glory.
Use a wise strategy and draft smart. Don't draft on emotion and don't grab all of your sleepers, because your team could be catching nothing but Z's and you'll be crying about it. Consider your squad in week 14 or during the championship week. Make sure you are aware of bye weeks. Do not get distracted talking smack, use every minute you are given to research the best available pick. Avoid distractions during the draft, like eating or getting drunk.
It is key to keep your mind clear so you can focused on what other owners are thinking. Follow your competitors picks. Why? Well, if you need a quarterback and nine have already been drafted, you may not need to use your next pick on a quarterback. If the rest of the owners in your league have already got their starting quarterback, they should be looking at other positions and are probably not seeking to draft their back-up quarterback.
As for kickers and defenses, I tend to take these players towards the end. Unless your heart is really set on one of these positions before the draft, it is wise to pick these players in the later rounds and based on bye weeks and home-field climate conditions.
Draft order is very important to decision making. For instance, if you are stuck with the last pick in the first round and the first pick in the second round, grabbing one of the better quarterbacks or wide receivers to line-up with a good running back could result in a good draft. It is a safer gamble and the most statistically sound strategy to select two running backs in the first two rounds and fill in the rest of your roster around your work-horse backfield. It is possible for an owner to win it all without having a good draft, but picking the right strategy can help ensure fantasy football success.
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