NFL: Week Four Could Be's (9/30/07)

Could Be Great:

QB: Philip Rivers vs KC -- After throwing for 306 yards last weekend, Rivers will look to flow against the Chiefs.

RB: Marion Barber vs StL -- Barber is a touchdown machine, he's bound to add another one to his growing total. This former Golden Gopher is looking more like the fantasy first rounder than the other Gopher back Laurence Maroney -- who was being drafted as high as eighth before the season started. The Cowboys have looked sharp and with the Rams having given up five rushing touchdowns and 152.3 yards per game on the ground over the first three weeks, Barber should be great.

WR: Donald Driver vs MIN -- The Packers offense has gone through the air on 70.6% of their plays so far this season and might continue that trend against a potentially vulnerable Vikings secondary. Favre WILL throw at least one touchdown in order to break Marino's record and I expect Driver to be on the receiving end.

Could Be Good:

QB: Matt Schaub vs ATL -- Schaub returns to Atlanta where he didn't get the chance to start under the Vick regime. I expect Schaub to do well just because of the circumstances, but without Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones and Ahman Green, he might need to show the Falcons what's up through other offensive options.

RB: Jamal Lewis vs BAL -- Lewis will try to make Baltimore regret letting him go as he rushes against his old team this weekend. The Ravens defense is stacked, but don't overlook an up-and-coming Browns offense.

WR: Darrell Jackson vs SEA -- Jackson also faces his old team and he's due for a breakthrough performance. After scoring double-digits in touchdowns last season, the Seahawks thought that was as good as it gets from Jackson and let him fly. If Alex Smith can get the ball to him, Jackson could make Seattle remember.

Could Be Bad:

QB: Jon Kitna vs CHI -- Brian Griese outperforms Jon Kitna? That's right. Even PROTRADE agrees that Kitna will be bad this weekend -- they've ranked him 20th on the quarterback projected fantasy rankings. Even though Kitna leads the NFL in passing with 345 yards per game and the Bears defense was exploited by a higher-powered Cowboys offense last weekend, Kitna has concerns. There is a good possibility that Kitna will be without his left tackle Jeff Backus in addition to Calvin Johnson being questionable. And yes, the Bears defense has appeared vulnerable to the tight end (Jason Witten last weekend), the Lions have Michael Campbell and little else. I'm with PROTRADE this week, Kitna could be bad.

RB: Adrian Peterson vs GB -- After accumulating a Vikings record for number of yards from scrimmage (431)through the first three weeks of the season, it's only downhill from here. Teams will focus on forcing the Vikings -- and their back-up quarterback -- to air it out. With Chester Taylor expected to return to the starting line-up, things could be bad all day for AP.

WR: Torry Holt vs DAL -- I love Torry Holt, but this week doesn't appear very promising. The Cowboys defense has shut down opponents and CB Anthony Henry has been a magnet to the football. With a number of offensive lineman out as well as Steven Jackson, it could be a rough week for the best show on turf with Holt suffering.

Week Three Could Be's (9/23/07)

Could Be Great:

QB: Tom Brady vs Buffalo -- Brady's numbers through the first two games: 6 TDS, 1 INT, 576 yards, Passer Rating of 134.2. In addition, earmuffs Bills fans, Buffalo is not very good on offense (32nd in pass yards per game, 31st in yards per game and 30th in points per game) which will allow Brady plenty of extra time to get comfortable.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs Green Bay -- I know you are thinking: way to go out on a limb and pick Brady and LT... But I can't imagine Tomlinson going through another weekend without topping 100 yards -- something he did in nine out of the first 10 games last season.

WR: Roy Williams vs Philadelpia -- Out of the 39 Williams' in the NFL, Roy will be the greatest of them all this weekend. Roy has two touchdowns in two games, but he's second on his team in catches and tied for second with Calvin Johnson (there are 42 Johnsons' in the NFL) in yards with 131. In an offense that ranks No. 1 in passing yards through the first two weeks, the Eagles defense could be a Roy Williams led Lions next victim.

Could Be Good:

QB: Jason Campbell vs New York Giants -- Campbell looked good on Monday Night in a road win against Philadelphia. He didn't put up stellar stats, but his run-threat and deep-ball capabilities make him a good candidate to do well against a Giants secondary that has given up the most passing yards in the NFL through two games.

RB: Thomas Jones vs Miami -- There are 30 Jones's and one Jones-Drew in the NFL. I figured why not get Jones on the list this week not only because of his name but his opponent. The Dolphins are 0-2 and will get nothing but a face full of a freshly healed Jones. Miami is giving up more than 375 yards per game in the first two and despite having Jason Taylor (14 Taylor's) on the defensive line -- I see Jones making his second home game better than his first (42 yards vs NE week one).

WR: Ronald Curry vs Cleveland -- His speed alone could be worth one touchdown alone for Curry. The Bengals were able to get six last weekend and I would expect Oakland to find a way to get the ball into the Raider receivers hands. After 10 catches in week one, Curry caught just two balls last weekend. I have a feeling that Curry was watching film of what Chad Johnson did against the Browns -- he was able to score twice.

Could Be Bad:

QB: Matt Leinart vs Baltimore -- Baltimore is a tough match-up for any quarterback in the NFL. I don't see many points out of the Cardinals and Leinart might find himself having to throw it up or get put on his back.

RB: Marshawn Lynch vs New England -- The Patriots are leading the league in rushing yards allowed for the first two games. I put Lynch on the "Could Be Bad" list for his NFL debut -- he was able to score a touchdown and rush for nearly 100 yards. Maybe my previous prediction was too soon.

WR: Donald Driver vs San Diego -- With Jennings expected on the field this weekend to go along with the Chargers coming to town -- Driver might have a quiet Sunday. (P.S. I really wanted to put a Jackson (26) or a Smith (55) here just for fun).

Week Two Could Be's (9/16/09)

Could Be Great:

QB: Carson Palmer vs Cleveland -- Palmer should be able to get things done against a Browns secondary which gave up four touchdown passes to Ben Roethlisberger in week one.

RB: Reggie Bush vs Tampa Bay -- The Colts did a good job forcing the Saints away from the run last week, but look for Bush to get more than 16 touches and total more than 45 yards against the Buccaneers.

WR: Marvin Harrison vs Tennessee -- Harrison did well in his 12th career season opener -- four catches for 83 yards and a touchdown, but his counterpart, Wayne, outperformed him (seven catches for 115 yards and two scores). Manning seems to have started a little inner-team competition between the two studs, I expect Harrison will catch up to Wayne against Tennessee.

Could Be Good:

QB: Matt Leinart vs Seattle -- Leinart should be over his 'first game' jitters and will get back on track at home where he's never thrown less than 200 yards.

RB: Rudi Johnson vs Cleveland -- I'm not trying to pick on the Browns defense by thinking two Bengals will do well, but it's hard to ignore what Rudi Johnson has done against them. He's scored nine times in the last nine meetings against Cleveland and has top 125 yards rushing in four of the last five.

WR: Reggie Brown vs Washington -- Brown was unproductive week one with just one catch, but as the most targeted Eagles receiver, he shouldn't be held down for too long -- I expect his coming out party to be Monday night.

Could Be Bad:

QB: Marc Bulger vs San Francisco -- Did you see the Niners defense on Monday? Leinart didn't expect that. And niether will Bulger, who might struggle for room to throw behind a shaky o-line.

RB: DeAngelo Williams vs Houston -- Carolina will need to use the air of Jake Delhomme's passes to get upfield, because the Panthers won't get much done on the ground. Houston's defense held Larry Johnson and the Chiefs to only 72 yards rushing week one -- it could be a long day for the Williams and Foster duo.

WR: Lavernues Coles vs Baltimore -- Coles had seven catches and two touchdowns against New England, but with Pennington in pain and the Ravens on the schedule, I don't expect much from anyone in a Jet uniform this weekend.

Week One Could Be's (9/9/07)

Could Be Great:

QB: Donovan McNabb vs Green Bay - The Eagles welcome back McNabb and the Packers will suffer his wrath.

RB: Frank Gore vs Arizona - Gore had four touchdowns in two games against the Cardinals last season.

WR: Randy Moss vs New York Jets - Not on the injury report, Moss will rip it up in his debut in a Patriot uniform.

Could Be Good:

QB: Jon Kitna vs Oakland - Get ready for a lethal passing attack led by veteran Kitna.

RB: Clinton Portis vs Miami - Portis will make you forget that he missed games last year when a quick start to this season.

WR: Anquan Boldin vs San Francisco - On Monday Nigh Football, the Leinart to Boldin connection could get going.

Could Be Bad:

QB: Eli Manning vs Dallas - Manning could be poor on Sunday Night Football -- he tends to choke under pressure, we'll see.

RB: Marshawn Lynch vs Denver - Welcome to the NFL Lynch, the Broncos will shut you down.

WR: Braylon Edwards vs Pittsburgh - Edwards is talented, but the Browns need someone to get him the ball.

HOW TO: Dominate Your Fantasy Football Draft

Fantasy football championships can be won from every draft position in the first round. Owners don't always win or lose the title based on the draft order. Obviously it's nice having the No. 1 pick, but it doesn't always guarantee anything. Applying the right strategy on draft day can increase your chances of winning a fantasy championship.

Taking running backs early is the strategy that should be used by all owners. Grabbing running backs in the first two rounds can solidify a strong starting line-up. With the quality of players at other positions, like Peyton Manning and Steve Smith, drafting a position in the first round other than running back can seem very tempting -- but it's not conducive to winning.

It may appear like a wise move locking up the "sexy" quarterback or whoever is considered the top ranked player at wide receiver rather than picking the fifth or sixth best running back. In a league with a standard scoring system, drafting the best wide receiver over the tenth best running back might be a good move, but what about drafting the third best wide receiver over the 13th best running back? Statistics show that the way to draft a fantasy football team is through the running back position. Nine of the first ten players taken in leagues with traditional scoring systems should be running backs. The depth at running back is shallow, but the importance is great.

Last season, 21 running backs ran for 1,000 + yards, and the year before that 16 backs eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing. In both 2005 and 2006, eight running backs scored over ten touchdowns. Last season there were 19 receivers with 1,000 + yards and in 2005, 18 wide-outs were able to catch over 1,000 yards. In 2005, seven receivers scored ten or more touchdowns and last year it was just five (Owens - 13, Harrison - 12, Darrell Jackson, Plaxico Burress and Torry Holt - 10).

In 2005, Shaun Alexander scored 27 touchdowns and Larry Johnson scored 20 touchdowns, while the top two wide receivers, Steve Smith and Marvin Harrison combined to score 24. Last year LT and LJ combined for 45 touchdowns while the top two guys, Owens and Harrison, combined for 30. Receivers don't score nearly as many fantasy points as running backs.

Every year one or two of the elite running backs gets injuries or a roster change makes an impact to a top backs performance. Many things, including the potential for finding a gem, may incline you to draft roster other positions first. Since most fantasy owners use (for good reason) the running back heavy strategy, other owners use the opposite strategy -- pick off the top of other positions first and fill in the running backs later. I've used that strategy and been successful with it. But I don't recommend it. Filling in your roster with a two hit-or-miss running backs each week is like trying build a World Series contender with hit-or-miss starting pitchers. What tends to happen to a team with weak running backs is that point production is often sporadic. The two hit-or-miss running backs could end up netting you a total of 20 or more, but they'll average for the season a combined six per week. You'll be the highest scoring squad in your league one week and then score a league low the next. As for your first two picks -- the two stud wide receivers -- well, they aren't like running backs, their production is dependent on other things. Receivers need love from both their quarterback to get them the ball and for the opposing defensive coordinator to be nice and not double cover them every time they enter in the red zone.

As for quarterback, if you want Manning and you are able to draft him, get him -- but you don't need him.

Before drafting Manning or Tom Brady consider this; Last season Manning scored 311 fantasy points up from 240 in 2005. The 20th best quarterback was Jake Delhomme who scored 156 points less than Manning, and the 20th overall quarterback in 2005 scored 117 points less.
Marvin Harrison outscored the rest of the fantasy receivers last season with 199 fantasy points. His 199 was just 64 points more than the 20th best scoring receiver. Again in 2005, Steve Smith was the top performing fantasy wide receiver and scored 147, the 20th best wide receiver scored 79 - only 68 points less than Smith.

Finally, in 2005 the top running back scored 253 points, while the 20th best running back scored 86 points, a difference of 167 points. Last year's numbers might have been a bit skewed because Tomlinson had a record breaking season, but the second best running back scored 162 more points than the 21st best.

2005:
QB: 20th best scored 117 points less than the 1st overallWR: 20th best scored 68 points less than the 1st overallRB: 20th best scored 167 points less than the 1st overall

2006:
QB: 20th best scored 156 points less than the 1st overallWR: 20th best scored 64 points less than the 1st overallRB: 21st best scored 162 points less than the 2nd overall

What this all means is that the wide receiver and quarterback position is much deeper than the running back position. Passing up on a passer in the first round or even better, waiting to draft your wide receivers until later into the draft is a great strategy. Passing up on the top quarterback on your cheat chart to draft the tenth best running back may not feel right inside your soul, but it is the proper strategy to ensure fantasy glory.

Use a wise strategy and draft smart. Don't draft on emotion and don't grab all of your sleepers, because your team could be catching nothing but Z's and you'll be crying about it. Consider your squad in week 14 or during the championship week. Make sure you are aware of bye weeks. Do not get distracted talking smack, use every minute you are given to research the best available pick. Avoid distractions during the draft, like eating or getting drunk.

It is key to keep your mind clear so you can focused on what other owners are thinking. Follow your competitors picks. Why? Well, if you need a quarterback and nine have already been drafted, you may not need to use your next pick on a quarterback. If the rest of the owners in your league have already got their starting quarterback, they should be looking at other positions and are probably not seeking to draft their back-up quarterback.

As for kickers and defenses, I tend to take these players towards the end. Unless your heart is really set on one of these positions before the draft, it is wise to pick these players in the later rounds and based on bye weeks and home-field climate conditions.

Draft order is very important to decision making. For instance, if you are stuck with the last pick in the first round and the first pick in the second round, grabbing one of the better quarterbacks or wide receivers to line-up with a good running back could result in a good draft. It is a safer gamble and the most statistically sound strategy to select two running backs in the first two rounds and fill in the rest of your roster around your work-horse backfield. It is possible for an owner to win it all without having a good draft, but picking the right strategy can help ensure fantasy football success.