Monday, August 20, 2007

PGA Picks Rd. 1: The Barclays (8/20/07)

The inaugural FedEx Cup playoffs get started without the No. 1 overall seed and heavy favorite. A Tiger-less field at The Barclays this weekend is great news for the remaining 143 golfers competing against Woods for the sweet looking trophy and cool $10 million that the top point accumulator will receive Sunday, September 16th. Even if Woods was entered this weekend, he wouldn't make my list of favorites. Here are the golfers I'm eyeing at Westchester:

1. Vijay Singh --
With Woods taking it easy, Singh enters this event as the one to watch. Not only is he the defending champion, but he's played superb at the Westchester Country Club winning three times and finishing in the top seven four times. Second to Tiger in FedEx Cup points, All Around Ranking and Money, Singh has a great opportunity to pad is points if he's able to win. Singh's first round 75 and second round 71 at the PGA Championship weren't low enough to get him playing on the weekend, but that might end up being a good thing. While Singh sat out after missing the cut, Woods is sitting out The Barclays because making the cut and fighting the heat took a too much of a toll on him. If Singh cashes in on the 9,000 FedEx Cup points that come with the Barclays trophy, it would be a huge step towards outscoring Tiger and winning the playoffs.

2. Adam Scott --
Adam Scott is primed to play well during the first ever post-season. Over the year, Scott made the cut in 12 of the 14 events he entered and had five top 10 finishes. But closely following Scott has been rough. Scott is one of my favorite golfers and I thought he would break out this season, but his rounds, much like his season, have been like a roller coaster. Scott will shoot one under par after four bogeys and five birdies or he'll alternate bogey birdie all round and finish even. Scott ranks fourth on TOUR in both bouncing back and birdies per round. Scott is one of the best bounce back golfers on tour and when he gets a bogey or worse, he's likely going to grab a par or birdie on the next hole. Scott ended last season strong with a runner-up finish at The Barclays and a win at the TOUR Championship. Since the British Open, Scott has started to show he's ready to finish strong again -- look for four low rounds from Scott this weekend.

3. Zach Johnson --
At the Westchester Country Club, driving accuracy can be a critical factor to success. With short fairways and plenty of doglegs, being accurate off the tee should benefit Zach Johnson. Johnson, who is the fifth most accurate driver on TOUR, could use ability to hit the fairway to his advantage. Although, if he misses the fairway he could be in trouble -- Johnson is 119th when scrambling from the rough. Also, if Johnson misses, it's a good gamble he's missing to the left. His left rough tendency is second in the PGA. This major winner will try to have major success in the playoffs and it could start this weekend.

4. Hunter Mahan --
If you look at Hunter Mahan's season you might not consider him as a playoff contender. He's missed the cut in eight events and started the year with a 75th place finish at the Bob Hope Classic and a tie for 56th at the Buick Invitational. Don't consider Mahan for the way he started the year, but rather for how he finished it. Mahan hasn't missed a cut in his past eight events and ranks eight in Ball Striking (computed by totaling a player's rank in both Total Driving and Greens in Regulation) -- something that will be key for the narrow fairways and harsh doglegs found at Westchester. Mahan is only 4,500 points back of Tiger Woods for first place in the playoff standings. With first place taking home 9,000 and second taking home 5,400 points, Mahan could overtake Woods with quality play this weekend.

5. Brandt Snedeker --
Brandt Snedeker's rookie season has been a lot sweeter than some professionals best seasons on tour. He's made more than $2.5 million, made the cut in 20/25 tournaments and after winning the Wyndham Championship last weekend he moved into ninth in the FedEx Cup Standings. Despite finishing with an All Around Ranking of 50, I think Snedeker could go ride his winning momentum into this weekend. Snedeker looked great on Sunday shooting past everyone with ten birdies and a final round 63. He could ride his hot streak into the playoffs or he could fizzle. Snedeker has played in 25 events and might be getting tired. His past eight tournaments (top 10 finishes in 5/8) have helped put Snedeker into a top ten point position, now it's time for him to take advantage.

Tiger Woods is treating this weekend as a "bye" week, which should level the playing field and result in a closer more competitive playoffs. When Tiger is fighting for a top 10 finish at the TOUR Championship in four weeks, he'll regret that he didn't grab some easy first round points. This weekends winner has a great chance of capturing the first ever FedEx Cup playoffs.

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