In order to remove the element of luck, baseball writer, historian and statistician Bill James invented a formula to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed.
Back in the middle of April, I put together a post that used RS and RA from this year and last year along with James's formula to predict the number of wins that each team would finish with.
Right now there are 5 teams with 40 or more wins. The Angels and Red Sox lead the MLB with 44 victories. Even though Boston and LA have the most wins in baseball, Bill James would call them lucky. Boston has scored 78 more runs than they've allowed, the Angels have outscored their opponents by 67. The Red Sox have allowed the 2nd least runs (Oakland 255, Boston 270).
In the NL East, the standings show a direct relationship to the amount of runs scored and allowed by each team. The NL East leading Mets have been able to outscore their opponents by 29. The other teams in the NL East haven't been so lucky and fall in line accordingly. Atlanta has 37 wins but has been outscored by 6, Philadelphia has been outscored by 2 runs, Florida by 10 and Washington by 67.
The Cardinals have almost the same record as the Cubs but have been outscored by 72 - they will likely get more wins as they get better luck.
The White Sox haven't gotten run support, they have a league worst 254 runs scored. This lack of production is one of the reasons that the White Sox have dropped to more than 10 games back in the AL Central.
Here are my predictions of how many wins each team would finish the season with using Bill James's formula (slightly adjusted with off-season moves):
1. New York Yankees - 97
2. New York Mets - 95
3. Detroit Tigers - 92
4. Minnesota Twins - 90
5. Los Angeles Dodgers - 89
6. Boston Red Sox - 88
7. Cleveland Indians - 88
8. Toronto Blue Jays - 87
9. Texas Rangers - 86
10. Oakland Athletics - 85
11. Philadelphia Phillies - 84
12. Chicago White Sox - 84
13. Chicago Cubs - 83
14. Los Angeles Angels - 83
15. San Diego Padres - 82
16. Houston Astros - 82
17. St. Louis Cardinals - 82
18. Florida Marlins - 81
19. Colorado Rockies - 80
20. Atlanta Braves - 79
21. Arizona Diamondbacks - 79
22. Cincinnati Reds - 78
23. San Francisco Giants - 78
24. Seattle Mariners - 77
25. Milwaukee Brewers - 73
26. Baltimore Orioles - 70
27. Pittsburgh Pirates - 70
28. Washington Nationals - 66
29. Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 63
30. Kansas City Royals - 60
As of Monday, June 18 - the season is about 41% over. Here is the projected number of wins teams would finish with if they have the same win % at the end of the season:
1. Boston Red Sox - 105
2. Los Angeles Angels - 102
3. San Diego Padres - 95
4. Cleveland Indians - 95
5. Detroit Tigers - 93
6. Arizona Diamondbacks - 92
7. Los Angeles Dodgers - 91
8. New York Mets - 89
9. Milwaukee Brewers - 89
10. Oakland Athletics - 88
11. Seattle Mariners - 86
12. Atlanta Braves - 85
13. New York Yankees - 84
14. Philadelphia Phillies - 84
15. Minnesota Twins - 82
16. Colorado Rockies - 82
17. Toronto Blue Jays - 78
18. Florida Marlins - 76
19. Chicago Cubs - 74
20. St. Louis Cardinals - 74
21. Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 72
22. San Francisco Giants - 71
23. Pittsburgh Pirates - 70
24. Houston Astros - 70
25. Washington Nationals - 70
26. Chicago White Sox - 70
27. Baltimore Orioles - 68
28. Kansas City Royals - 64
29. Cincinnati Reds - 62
30. Texas Rangers - 61
With the element of luck eventually evening out, you can be certain that the season won't end the way it is projected as of today.
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