Consider the winner of the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs series the future NBA champion. The Suns and Spurs have the most talented rosters in the NBA and are the best two teams remaining in the 2007 NBA playoffs. It already feels like we'll be seeing replays of this series on ESPN Classic.
The player match-ups pair some of the leagues best against each other. The Tim Duncan vs Amare Stoudemire match-up is getting all the hype, but it isn't even the most important. The TD/Amare battle is overshadowing the better head to head match-up which is between point guards Steve Nash and Tony Parker. Even the Manu Ginobili vs Leandro Barbosa match-up is getting more attention because they went 1,2 in the 6th man balloting, but it will be up to either Nash or Parker to lead their teams to a series win.
Nash and Parker banged heads Sunday, but it didn't stop either of them from dominating. In Game 1, Parker had 32 points and 8 assists while Nash added 31 points and also had 8 assists. Duncan and Stoudemire didn't bonk head but exchanged blows (Duncan had 33 points and 16 rebounds/Stoudemire had 20 points, 18 rebounds) which makes it even harder to determine which head to head match-up is the most influential. The only thing that is certain from game 1 is that this series is going to be good. Nash knows what it will take to advance, but the series will likely be decided by the play of Tony Parker.
This past season Nash and Parker led all NBA point guards in field goal percentage (Nash 53.2%, Parker 52.0%). In 2005-06, Parker led all NBA guards in shooting and was 3rd overall in the NBA.
Tony Parker loves when the Spurs play against the Suns. Compared to the other teams in the NBA, Parker performs his best against Phoenix. Maybe it's part of the Suns defensive strategy against the Spurs, but for a career Parker attempts more shots against Phoenix than any other team. This past season, Parker scored his most points per game when he played the Knicks (28.5), but scored his second most against the Suns (28.0).
One reason that Parker owns the Suns is because PHX allows Parker to shoot. The threat of Parker's driving ability and his shooting percentage around the basket force defenders to play behind the screen on a screen and roll as opposed to over the top. The Suns prefer to let Parker shoot a 15-18 foot jump shot rather than giving up a drive to the hoop. Preventing Parker from penetrating the paint stops him from breaking down the defense, dishing to Duncan, Horry or Elson or tacking on fouls to Suns bigs Amare, Marion and Kurt Thomas. Plus, Parker shoots 72% from the foul line for his career. So when Parker gets the open look - it's up to him to cash in and win the series for San Antonio.
I found an interesting stat while researching Parker. Tony Parker has the NBA's best percentage following a missed field goal. Parker makes 61% of his shots following a miss, better than Elton Brand (58%), Shawn Marion (57%), and Steve Nash (53%). Parker's wise shot selection could be a reason he tops the list. Parker creates off the dribble and uses screens to score baskets which is why Parker is also on the top 10 list of NBA players with the lowest number of assisted field goals made.
This past season Parker shot 52% from the field. After game 1, Parker was 14/22 (63%). Suns coach Mike D'Antoni might want to pressure Parker's shot a little more. Playing over as opposed to under the screen on the Spurs screen and rolls will give Parker more freedom to drive to the basket, but might prevent him from pulling up and knocking down the outside shot.
Pick your poison.
San Antonio's win Sunday marked the first win for an away team in the season series between these two teams (SAS is now up 3-1). With Dallas getting bounced in round 1, the winner of the Phoenix and San Antonio series should represent the Western Conference in the NBA finals. In a 7 game series, the winner of the first game goes on to win the series 78% of the time. Phoenix will attempt to stop Tony Parker on Tuesday in game 2.
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