Cavaliers Need More From Gooden, Pavlovic and Snow (May 24, 2007)

Don't expect Detroit to play as poorly in game 2 as they did in game 1. The Pistons won the game, but after the game Chauncey Billups said they played bad enough to lose.

For the Cavaliers to have a chance of reaching the NBA Finals they need to steal the close games and especially on the road. The Cavs are 0-12 in game 1's on the road in playoff history, so losing Monday was no big surprise.

Despite making 6 three's in game 6 versus New Jersey, Donyell Marshall couldn't knock down the open look to put the Cavaliers up late in game 1.

Billups hit key baskets and free throws in the 4th quarter Monday, but will need to cut down on turnovers if the Pistons want to avoid another close game (Billups had 7 TO's and only 5 assists in game 1).

LeBron James didn't attempt a free throw, but that didn't change the overall outcome of the game. His free throw shooting is one part of his game that needs the most work. Let's face it; the Cavs should have the lead in the series even after shooting just 37% from the floor in game 1. The Cavs should have a lead in this series even without LBJ shooting FT's, being aggressive or only shooting 3 times in the 4th. The Pistons snuck out of game 1 with a win, and Marshall's miss could cost the Cavs a trip to the Finals.

The Detroit Pistons are 9-0 in their last 9 playoff series when they win game 1.

It's obvious that winning the first game of a playoff series is vital, not just psychologically but statistically. The Pistons want to go ahead 2-0 because 96% of teams a 2-0 advantage in a conference finals have won the series. 56 of the past 58. You could have pretty much punched the Pistons NBA Finals ticket after game 1. And if Detroit wins tonight - Pistons fans can rest assured their making it back to the Finals after missing out last year to Miami.

LeBron and Cleveland did get help from Anderson Varejao and Larry Hughes who each scored 13 points. And Zydrunas Ilgauskas contributed 22 points and 13 rebounds. But if the Pistons emphasize stopping James on defense, the Cavs role players need to step up.

In game 1 the Cavs bench raised concern. If Cleveland considers itself the best team in the Eastern Conference they need to get production from every guy on the roster. The loss in game 1 can be credited to a lot of things: James' lack of shots, James' lack of free throw attempts, Marshall's miss, Richard Hamilton, the Pistons defense, the Pistons in general.

It might have been a different story had Drew Gooden done more than score 6 points and pull down 5 rebounds (he leads the team in rebounds per game with 8.5). The Cavs also need a better game 2 from Sasha Pavlovic and Eric Snow. Pavlovic had 9 points on 14 shots in the first game, but didn't tally a rebound, assist, steal or block and was 0/2 from the FT line. Sasha leads the Cavs in 3 pt % at about 40% but has gone 10/33 in the post-season. Eric Snow had just 1 point and 3 assists in 16 minutes of action. Snow has Eastern Conference championship experience and must perform better if the Cavs want to even the series.

Despite the game 1 defeat, the Cavaliers have a lot to look positively on. They did grab 18 offensive rebounds leading to 17 second chance baskets. They did almost win even after LeBron's worst playoff scoring output in his young career. And if Marshall makes that 3 pointer with 3 seconds left, the Cavs win, LeBron gets a triple double and Cleveland leads the series.

"James Plan" Is The New "Jordan Rules" (May 21, 2007)

You have to contain him," Flip Saunders said about LeBron James. "You're never going to stop him."

Containing LBJ is not easy, stopping him is almost impossible. If Flip Saunders can shut down LeBron James and get to the NBA Finals, he'll have to hook up with Sam Smith and write a book. Flip's guide to defending James could become a best seller. "We've got a name for it," Saunders said Saturday. "But I'm not going to talk about it now. Maybe later."

Well for now, I'll name it the "James Plan".

LeBron James has amazing talent. From God given talent to Nike contracts, the comparisons to Michael Jordan are easy to make. As rookies, both James and Jordan were named All-Stars and Rookie of the Year and LeBron joined MJ and Oscar Robertson as the only players in history to average at least 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists per game during their rookie seasons. It has always been clear that James has Jordan-esk talent, but can he be like Mike, get past Detroit and win multiple NBA titles? History is being created and we are all witnesses.

Jordan had a lot of success early in his career, but failed to produce during the post season. In Jordan's rookie year his Bulls lost in the first round. In his second season, Jordan posted a playoff record 63 points against the Boston Celtics - arguably one of the greatest teams ever. Despite personal accomplishments, Jordan's team was swept. In his third season, Jordan scored 37 points per game. But again, the Bulls lost in the first round to the Celtics.

Not until Jordan's fourth year in the league did he get past round 1. In Round 2, The Bulls were sent home by the "Bad Boys" of Detroit. In 1988-89, Jordan topped the Knicks and Cavs (over Ehlo), but was beat by the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Championship. In 1989-90, led by Pippen and Jordan, the Bulls made it back to the Eastern Conference Championship. Jordan lost to the Pistons for the third consecutive year and Detroit would capture their second consecutive title.

In 1991, Chicago finally swept Detroit. The Bulls only lost 2 post season games on their way to the first of three straight championships. Following the game, Isiah Thomas and the rest of the "Bad Boys" walked off the court with :04 left and didn't shake Jordan's hand. Jordan would make the Pistons pay for their defiant gesture busting the slowly diminishing Pistons for more than 25 straight wins. Jordan would go on to create a legacy that included 6 titles and 6 Finals MVP awards.

LeBron James couldn't lift the Cavaliers to the playoffs in his first two seasons as a pro but shined in his playoff debut last season with a triple-double. James advanced past round 1 and his Cavaliers had a 3-2 lead over Detroit in the conference semi-finals before exiting in 7. This season, for the first time in 15 years, Cleveland is in the Eastern Conference championship and has a rematch with the Pistons. It took Jordan 4 years of losing to Detroit before he finally got a taste of the NBA Finals, LeBron is hoping he won't have to experience a reign of Detroit dominance.

The Pistons are a lot like the "Bad Boys" because they are experienced, smart, well coached, relaxed yet hyper and have the killer drive. Experience and wisdom comes with 5 straight trips to the Eastern Conference Championship. The "Bad Boys" had Isiah Thomas and Bill Laimbeer, these Pistons have Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace. Rasheed might be the only player I've ever seen who actually gets better the more he loses his composure. John Salley, Joe Dumars and Dennis Rodman were all contributors to the success of the Bad Boys. Tayshaun Prince (most likely to d-up James), Richard Hamilton, Antonio McDyess and Chris Webber are contributing to this seasons success. Jordan used Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant and BJ Armstrong to get past the Pistons. LeBron's entourage might not be as talented, but they are still capable of winning the series.

The way that Jordan got past Detroit was by getting everyone involved. Jordan was guarded under "The Jordan Rules" and saw a lot of double and triple teams. Under "The James Plan", LeBron may experience triple or quadruple teams and he will need his supporting cast to step up. Jordan did more for his team by doing less scoring on the offensive end. The playoffs in which Jordan got past Detroit, he averaged 8.4 assists per game and 31 points. In the previous post-season, Jordan averaged 6.8 assists and scored 36.7 points - proving that giving up the ball helped his team succeed. LeBron is averaging 8.1 assists and 25.9 points this post season versus 5.8 and 30.7 last year.

Jordan didn't win 6 titles by himself, and Cleveland will need more than just LeBron to get past Detroit. Jordan's Robin was Scottie Pippen. LeBron needs a little more help from his Robin, Larry Hughes. Hughes started the post season well, but slowed down at the end of the Nets series. LeBron needs Gooden, Ilgauskas, Snow, Pavlovic and Hughes to play on another level.

Wise LeBron knows that, "You can't get through Detroit training in no pool." Starting tonight, Basketball Player LeBron will have his "training" methods put to the test as he goes for try #2 against the new "Bad Boys".

Get Ready for Amare's Revenge (5/17/07)

I'm relishing in the drama of the NBA playoffs. The Suns / Spurs series is providing great entertainment. Both teams have winners of multiple MVP awards and rosters filled with talented players worthy of wearing the championship ring. Last night the Spurs took a 3-2 series lead, but with the return of Amare for game 6, the Suns aren't ready to throw in the towel.

After having what seemed to be control over game 5, the Suns managed to let the Spurs steal the win and the series lead. In the absence of Stoudemire, Shaun Marion stepped up with 24 points and 17 rebounds. It wasn't enough to hold off a late Bruce Bowen three pointer that ultimately clouded the Suns chance at victory and maybe an NBA title.

Last night the Suns had to pretend like it was 2006 (Stoudemire basically missed the entire season) after Amare was out of the line-up for the first time all year (Stoudemire was the only Suns player to appear in all 82). The Robert Horry "body check" of Steve Nash that kept Amare out of game 5 cost the Suns more than it cost the Spurs. The Suns probably should have won the game last night even without Amare, but Stoudemire's impact is much greater on the Suns success than Horry's impact on the Spurs success (San Antonio is 13-1 WITHOUT Horry in the lineup). In game 6 Friday be prepared for the revenge, the unleashing of a powered-up performance by a madman ready to silence the crowd and bring the series back to Phoenix.

The Spurs are sitting pretty after winning game 5. When a series is tied 2-2, the winner of game 5 has gone on to win 83% of the time and on top of that the Suns have never won a series tied at 2-2 in franchise history. Despite all that, the white flag has not been raised. Amare is primed to produce a jaw-dropping, historic performance. His first two games in San Antonio were decent, but not worthy of First Team All-NBA. In a game 3 loss, Amare flirted with foul trouble, only played 20 mins and despite scoring 21 he grabbed just 5 rebounds. In a game 4 win, Amare again had foul trouble, played 31 minutes, but had a solid all around game 26 points and 9 rebounds. Game 6 is going to be an explosion.

In the 2005 playoffs, Stoudemire showed up huge. Using Tim Duncan as his poster boy, Stoudemire showed the entire nation what he was capable of doing. He put together three 40 point playoff games including two against the Spurs and scored at least 30 points in 11 of his 15 post-season games. Stoudemire averaged 37 ppg during the series against Duncan and played his best when the season was on the line. In the do or die game 5, Stoudemire put up a career playoff high 42 points and added 16 rebounds - but the Suns lost and the Spurs advanced.

Even though Amare has had at least 20 points in each playoff game this season, he hasn't seemed focused. He looks like Greg Oden did in the NCAA tournament, playing lackadaisical defense and spending a majority of his time on the bench after picking up silly immature fouls. He hasn't been the 42 point scoring, Duncan posterizing Amare that he was in the '05 playoffs. After sitting out game 5, Amare will use fresh legs to spring over the Spurs defense for monster dunks.

Early in the series Amare's mind might have been taken out it after Bruce Bowen attempted to step on his "Achilles" while going up for a dunk during Game 2. After the game Amare called the Spurs a "dirty team" and heard it from the Spurs crowd in games 3 and 4. Stoudemire clamied that the hostile crowd motivated him, saying "I love it. I hope they keep it up." He can expect to hear an extra motivated crowd Friday when the Spurs try to punch their ticket to a Western Conference Finals match-up against the Utah Jazz.

It will be important for Amare to remain focused from start to finish in game 6 and not let the crowd get to him. If Amare can avoid foul trouble and show the Spurs his strength on offense, SA will have a hard time clinching the series.

This series has been back and forth. San Antonio completely controlled game 4 until the Suns outscored San Antonio 32-18 in the 4th quarter to steal it in the end. Phoenix controlled the first half of game 5, but the Spurs outscored Phoenix by 9 in the 4th to win by 3.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the series return to Phoenix for a deciding game 7 with both teams at full strength. The Spurs will have Robert Horry back from his 2 game suspension and I'm sure the crowd in Phoenix will let him have it. Like I said before and I'll say it again, the winner of this series is the NBA champion. This series is the NBA finals. Hopefully the drama will continue and we'll get to see a game 7.

The Booz Tastes Good in Utah (5/10/07)

In the opening round, Carlos Boozer abused Yao and the Rockets for more than 12 boards per game. Boozer lifted the Jazz to round 2 in a game 7 win on the road where he contributed 35 points, 14 rebounds and 5 assists. Boozer has continued his success in the 2nd round against Golden State putting up 17 points and pulling down 20 rebounds in a game 1 win. And in last night's game Boozer was the stud - he had 30 points and 13 rebounds shooting 64% from the floor and 12/14 from the line.

All season Booze-hound has dominated averaging almost 21 points and 12 boards a game. Jazz fans are seeing the second coming of Stockton to Malone with Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. With the help of Boozer and D-Will, Utah holds a commanding 2-0 series lead on the Warriors.

As Tommy Beer pointed out recently in an article on HoopsWorld.com, Boozer's story begins in the Summer of 2004.

Boozer came out of Duke following his freshman season and was selected by the Cavs in the second round. His performance in his first two seasons (10 ppg/7.5 rpg and 15.5 ppg/11.4 rpg) gave Cavaliers fans something to get excited about - a future with LeBron and Boozer. However, 2nd round draft picks aren't given long contracts and Boozer was set to become a free agent. Improving his point total by more than 5 points per game and his rebounds by almost 4 per game had Boozer thinking he was worth more than the 695k that his original contract paid him - the Cavaliers agreed.

In the off-season of 2004, Cleveland was under the impression their big Boozer would sign with them for 4 years $40 million, but never got his signature.

Here's where Utah comes in. The Jazz had tried to land big free agents in previous summers (Jason Terry, Elton Brand) but with no success they were left with a lot of extra spending money. This is what allowed Utah the opportunity to offer Boozer max dollars and max years - something they knew that Cleveland would have a hard time matching. Within weeks, Boozer was rocking a Jazz uni.

"There was no commitment, it's unfortunate how it went through the media but I'm really excited to be in the situation I'm in... It's against the rules, first of all, to have [a pre-arranged agreement]. I'm not a guy that gives my word and then takes it away, I think I made that clear." - Carlos Boozer responding to the hate for leaving Cleveland.

As much as Cleveland fans and management wanted to give flack to Boozer for not signing, just one summer later the Cavs signed Larry Hughes for more than they could have signed Boozer (7 years $70 million). They also gave $24 million to Donyell Marshall, $16 million to Damon Jones and extended Zydrunas Ilgauskas contract for another 5 years and for another $53 million.

Utah's offer of 6 years $68 million wasn't something that Boozer could pass up and his decision has impacted this years playoffs and could hinder how many titles LeBron will end up with. Although Boozer battled injuries in his first two years with Utah, he has shown that he's been worth the money this post-season. It's hard not to imagine what could have been had the Cavs current playoff roster contained Boozer. I'm willing to bet that LeBron would give $28 million of his Nike Contract to have Boozer bailing him out on offense rather than Andy Varejao (21 pts, 38 rebounds in 6 post-season games), Damon Jones (where is he?) or Donny Marshall (11 points, 7 boards in post-season).

It's only a matter of time before LeBron James wins an NBA championship. Or is it? The Cavs big men aren't exactly super-stars and Larry Hughes has yet to play in Cleveland like he did in Washington. Not to mention the disappointment in Damon Jones and the point guard position in general, Eric Snow isn't getting any better or younger. It's easy to make the case that the Cavs would love having Boozer in their front court if they match against the Pistons's forwards Chris Webber, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess in the East finals.

The Jazz have used Boozer as the cornerstone of their post-season run. During the Houston series he showed he'll be an NBA All-Star for years to come. Unlike LeBron's Cavs, the Jazz get great guard play from Williams and vet Derek Fisher. They also have great all around athletes in Mehmet Okur (23 points, 18 rebounds in game 2), Andrei Kirilenko (6.5 bpg in the GS series) and Matt Harpring. With players like Gordan Giricek, Paul Millsap, CJ Miles, Ronnie Brewer and Dee Brown - the Jazz bench is deep and talented. It appears that Boozer's Jazz might have a better chance of winning the NBA title than LeBron's Cavs.

The Warriors have played great against the Jazz and could have won both games, so this series is far from over. But by the way things have looked for Utah over the past 4 games - it's hard to think that the Jazz will slow down anytime soon.

When Defending Tony Parker, Pick Your Poison (5/7/07)

Consider the winner of the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs series the future NBA champion. The Suns and Spurs have the most talented rosters in the NBA and are the best two teams remaining in the 2007 NBA playoffs. It already feels like we'll be seeing replays of this series on ESPN Classic.

The player match-ups pair some of the leagues best against each other. The Tim Duncan vs Amare Stoudemire match-up is getting all the hype, but it isn't even the most important. The TD/Amare battle is overshadowing the better head to head match-up which is between point guards Steve Nash and Tony Parker. Even the Manu Ginobili vs Leandro Barbosa match-up is getting more attention because they went 1,2 in the 6th man balloting, but it will be up to either Nash or Parker to lead their teams to a series win.

Nash and Parker banged heads Sunday, but it didn't stop either of them from dominating. In Game 1, Parker had 32 points and 8 assists while Nash added 31 points and also had 8 assists. Duncan and Stoudemire didn't bonk head but exchanged blows (Duncan had 33 points and 16 rebounds/Stoudemire had 20 points, 18 rebounds) which makes it even harder to determine which head to head match-up is the most influential. The only thing that is certain from game 1 is that this series is going to be good. Nash knows what it will take to advance, but the series will likely be decided by the play of Tony Parker.

This past season Nash and Parker led all NBA point guards in field goal percentage (Nash 53.2%, Parker 52.0%). In 2005-06, Parker led all NBA guards in shooting and was 3rd overall in the NBA.

Tony Parker loves when the Spurs play against the Suns. Compared to the other teams in the NBA, Parker performs his best against Phoenix. Maybe it's part of the Suns defensive strategy against the Spurs, but for a career Parker attempts more shots against Phoenix than any other team. This past season, Parker scored his most points per game when he played the Knicks (28.5), but scored his second most against the Suns (28.0).

One reason that Parker owns the Suns is because PHX allows Parker to shoot. The threat of Parker's driving ability and his shooting percentage around the basket force defenders to play behind the screen on a screen and roll as opposed to over the top. The Suns prefer to let Parker shoot a 15-18 foot jump shot rather than giving up a drive to the hoop. Preventing Parker from penetrating the paint stops him from breaking down the defense, dishing to Duncan, Horry or Elson or tacking on fouls to Suns bigs Amare, Marion and Kurt Thomas. Plus, Parker shoots 72% from the foul line for his career. So when Parker gets the open look - it's up to him to cash in and win the series for San Antonio.

I found an interesting stat while researching Parker. Tony Parker has the NBA's best percentage following a missed field goal. Parker makes 61% of his shots following a miss, better than Elton Brand (58%), Shawn Marion (57%), and Steve Nash (53%). Parker's wise shot selection could be a reason he tops the list. Parker creates off the dribble and uses screens to score baskets which is why Parker is also on the top 10 list of NBA players with the lowest number of assisted field goals made.


This past season Parker shot 52% from the field. After game 1, Parker was 14/22 (63%). Suns coach Mike D'Antoni might want to pressure Parker's shot a little more. Playing over as opposed to under the screen on the Spurs screen and rolls will give Parker more freedom to drive to the basket, but might prevent him from pulling up and knocking down the outside shot.

Pick your poison.

San Antonio's win Sunday marked the first win for an away team in the season series between these two teams (SAS is now up 3-1). With Dallas getting bounced in round 1, the winner of the Phoenix and San Antonio series should represent the Western Conference in the NBA finals. In a 7 game series, the winner of the first game goes on to win the series 78% of the time. Phoenix will attempt to stop Tony Parker on Tuesday in game 2.

Golden State, the Magic 8 Seed (5/3/07)

The Warriors struggled through 12 straight losing seasons before this year's playoff team went 42-40. Last year, Baron Davis was working with Richardson, Biedrins and Ellis, but the supporting cast included Troy Murphy, Derek Fisher, Mike Dunleavy and Ike Diogu. This January's mid-season trade between the Pacers and Warriors ultimately exchanged Steven Jackson and Al Harrington for Murphy and Dunleavy - freeing up space in the line-up for off-season acquisition Matt Barnes and 2003 draft pick Mikael Pietrus.

The January 17th trade could go down as the best in Warriors pathetic trade history. Here is what the Warriors have done in the past:

1965: Traded Wilt Chamberlain for Connie Dierking, Paul Neuman and Lee Shaffer.

1980: Traded Robert Parish and Kevin McHale for J.B. Carroll and Rickey Brown

1991: Traded Mitch Richmond for Billy Owens

1994: Traded Chris Webber for Tom Gugliotta

The January 17th trade did more for Golden State than all of those other trades combined. GM Chris Mullin might have saved to Warriors trade reputation by relieving over $30 million in long-term cap room at the same time bringing in perfect guys to fit Don Nelson's style of play.

"It's night and day. The team is totally different than when we started the season," said Jason Richardson.

You could say that the team hasn't been themselves all season. The Maverick's might be matched against an 8-seeded team that is far better than their record shows. Only Andris Biedrins appeared in all 82 games. Baron Davis missed 19 games (11 in February) from injuries and the Warriors were 6-13 without him in the line-up. Jason Richardson missed 31 games and the Warriors were 13-18 without him. During the 48 games following the All-Star break, Golden State played 15 of them without Davis and 14 without Richardson.

Harrington and Jackson have both improved statistically since joining the Warriors. Jackson averaged 14.1 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 37 games with Indiana and improved those numbers to 16.8/3.3/4.6 while with GS. Harrington started every game during the regular season up until being benched at the start of games 3-5 in the Dallas series. Despite a recent slump, Harrington's numbers have increased since leaving Indiana. Harrington has averages of 17.0 points (15.9 points w/ IND), 6.4 rebounds (6.3 rebounds w/ IND) and 2.3 assists (1.4 assists while w/ IND) since joining Nellie's offense.

Not only have the players improved, the team has done better as well. Pre- All-Star game, the Warriors scored 105.9 ppg, shot 46.1% from the floor and attempted 22.6 3's per game. Post-ASG, the Warriors have averaged 107.4 ppg, shot 46.7% and launched a league leading 26.6 3's per game.

Prior to the trade the Warriors were 19-20 and have gone 26-22 since (including playoffs). At one point the Warriors were 26-35 and the playoffs looked unreachable. It was in a March 5th beat down in Detroit that the swagger began. Golden State crushed the Pistons 111-93 and it appeared that everyone on the Warrior roster was healthy and all together for the very first time. The Warriors finished the season going 16-4 and only lost 2 games in April - one being game 2 vs Dallas.

The Warriors have taken Dallas to the ropes by executing in every area. In the first game of this series, Dallas shot poorly from the floor (35% vs 43%) and Golden State took advantage winning by 12 - the "Big 4" (BDiddy, J-Rich, Steven Jackson and Al Harrington) all played more than 35 minutes. In game 2, the Maverick's shot better from the floor but the reason they won was that they shot 16 more FT attempts than Golden State. Harrington's 1/8 shooting and 5 points in game 2 contributed to the Warriors loss.

The game 3 "W" could be credited to the equal distribution of production (5 GS players scored in double figures, 2 players scored 7). Game 4 was all about Baron Davis - his individual effort in this game alone will propel him into the post-season MVP race. After getting only 1 point from Harrington and nothing from Ellis, Davis stepped up and had his best game of the series (so far) - scoring 33 points, grabbing 8 rebounds and dishing 4 assists.

In game 5, I thought it was over. But Dallas, on the shoulders of Dirk Nowitzki, was able to sneak out a victory by finishing the game on a 15-0 run. Davis was excellent and Richardson played well in the loss. Harrington, for the 4th straight game, was unproductive. Much like the Warriors in game 4, it was the Mavs in game 5 who got an equal balance of production from the entire roster (6 guys in double figures).

In order to close out the series, the Warriors need to play an up-tempo style that includes producing as many possessions as they can, scoring in bunches and getting an equal contribution from the bench as well as the "Big 4". Don Nelson hasn't used much of his bench in this series. Partly because he needs the best players possible to be on the floor in order to beat the best team in the NBA - 7 players seems to be enough. And partly because most of the Warriors starters are fresh from not having played a full season due to injuries. The Warriors chemistry continues to get better with every game, if they are able to beat Dallas - look out Houston, look out NBA!

The 8-seeded Warriors might be the most dangerous 8 seed ever. The Western Conference is stacked. The Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets and Warriors are all the underdogs in their first round series. Imagine Denver next year having AI at the point and Nene grabbing boards for a complete season. Imagine Golden State next year with a full season of this hustle and flow roster. "We Believe" (Warrior Fans) that the Warriors aren't concerned about next year, they are fully focused on this year and making history by becoming the first ever 8 seed to upset a 1 seed in a 7-game series.