In the 2003 - 2004 season, Dallas and San Antonio shared the best record in the NBA. It was the Spurs who got the tie-breaker and they went on to beat Dallas in 6 games in the conference finals. The Spurs took care of New Jersey to capture the title.
Since that year, the team with the best record has struggled in the post-season. In '03-'04 it was the T'Wolves who had the NBA's best record and they went on to lose in the Western Conference Finals. In '04-'05, Phoenix won 62 games and had the NBA's best record, though San Antonio won its 3rd title, 2nd in 3 years, edging Detroit in game 7. Last year continued the trend. The Spurs were NBA's best record-wise, but it was Miami - who was 12 games back of Detroit for best in the East - that went on to win the 'chip.
The best record this year belongs to the Dallas Mavericks. Will the trend continue?
I think Dallas has all the parts to get to the Finals and win it all. I just don't think they will.
Here are the NBA Playoff teams ranked according to the Pythagorean expectation. This original formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won. Dean Oliver converted this theory for basketball. Oliver used [Points For] divided by [Points For + Points Against] to equate a win percentage. Not including tonight's games, here is how the 16 playoff teams rank:
1. San Antonio - 52.3%
2. Phoenix Suns - 52.0%
3. Dallas Mavericks - 51.9%
4. Chicago Bulls - 51.3%
5. Houston Rockets - 51.1%
6. Detroit Pistons - 51.0%
7. Cleveland Cavaliers - 50.9%
8. Utah Jazz - 50.6%
9. Toronto Raptors - 50.3%
10. Denver Nuggets - 50.3%
11. Orlando Magic - 50.1%
12. Los Angeles Lakers - 49.9%
13. Miami Heat - 49.8%
14. Washington Wizards - 49.8%
15. New Jersey Nets - 49.7%
16. Golden State Warriors - 49.7%
Over the last couple of days of the regular season, these numbers may change slightly. I have taken into consideration other statistics that could effect the way the playoffs are played in order to determine who will win it all. It is pretty clear that the team representing the Western Conference will be San Antonio, Phoenix or Dallas. In the East, it's a little more open - with Detroit being the favorite.
Factors that might be important to consider when putting money down on your Finals Champion are offensive rebounding, assists to turnovers and attempting more free throw than your opponent. T
he best teams are the ones who don't turn the ball over and find open men for easy hoops. Of the top teams, Phoenix, Detroit, Toronto, San Antonio and Utah have the best assists to turnover ratios. The worst: Chicago, Miami and Cleveland.
Second chances in the NBA playoffs are just as important as controlling the ball. Offensive rebounds allow a team to achieve more offensive possessions and therefore more chances to score. Teams that out-rebound their opponents on the offensive end are Cleveland (+2.8), Utah (+2.6) and Chicago (+1.1). Teams who grab less offensive boards than their opponents are Phoenix (-3.2), Golden State (-1.7) and Miami (-1.2). The Suns shoot the best FG % in the NBA, so by not missing a lot, they don't get as many rebounds.
Shaq claims that he makes them when they count. Free throw attempts in the post-season mean three things. 1) If your team is getting to the line, it often means they are being agressive and assertive on offense. 2) More free throws usually means more fouls on the other team, maybe on their best player. 3) More attempts at the FT line can result in points with the clock stopped - critical in late game situations.
The teams that reach the foul line more than their opponent's could be more likely to reach the NBA Finals. Denver (+6.2), Washington (+3.1) and San Antonio (+2.7) see the stripe most out of the playoff teams. Teams who get to the line less than their opponents are Golden State (-3.7), Dallas (-2.0) and Chicago (-1.5).
I'm taking the Phoenix Suns over the Chicago Bulls in the 2007 version of the NBA Finals. Even though the Spurs finish first in the formula, I think the Suns have the best chance of winning it all.
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