MLB's best pitcher is the most expensive pitcher on PROTRADE. Johan Santana is currently being sold at $40.00 more per share than the next most expensive pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka - who is another short story altogether. Santana should be shorted in a portion of your portfolio. Not only should you short Santana because his current price is unreachable, but you should consider shorting Santana because of his historically slow starts to the season.
It's rare when a pitcher can get it done from opening day to game 7 of the world series. With 162 games on the schedule, a starting pitcher in any rotation is likely to feel fatigued. Pitching better towards the end of the year is more important than pitching well in April. Much like Carlos Santana has mastered the art of the electric guitar, Johan has mastered the art of getting it done during the most critical part of the season and during the push for the pennant.
Since coming into the league, Johan has struggled in the early part of the season. Last season, Johan lost 3 games in April and had a 4.45 ERA - not exactly Cy Young numbers. Santana only lost 3 more games the rest of the year and ended up with the pitcher's triple crown and the Cy Young award.
Historically dominant pitchers pitch well from start to finish. Historical great Greg Maddux is known for consistency as well as dominance. Since 1987, Maddux has recorded a 3.10 ERA and won 47% of his starts before the mid-summer classic. In his career following the all-star game, Maddux wins in 52% of his starts and lowers his ERA to 3.00.
Since Curt Schilling's debut in 1988, he has won 51% of his starts following the all-star game as opposed to 48% before. Schilling's ERA is also higher before (3.54) the all-star break than after (3.34). Other pitchers like Chris Carpenter and Tom Glavine have also had more success in the months of June, July and August than in April and May.
I would much rather have a pitcher who starts the season off cool and heats up, than a pitcher who starts off hot and cools down. So far in Dontrelle Willis's career, he has had more success at the beginning of the year than he has at the end. Following the all-star break, Willis has only won 38% of his starts. His career ERA is 3.13 prior to the all-star break and goes up to 3.77 after. The D-Train tends to slow down in July and August. Although Willis has been able to find strength and play better in his career in September, he hasn't been able to record a win in two starts in October.
At 1-0, Johan Santana needs to start quick in 2007 in order to shake the reputation of being vulnerable early on. Santana has 79 wins in his 7 year career, only 18% of those have come before June. The heat of the Summer is when Johan gets hot, 63% of his career wins are in June, July and August.
Unlike the D-Train, as the season goes on, the S-Train lowers his ERA. In Santana's career he has had a 4.47 ERA in April. He has managed to drop his ERA to 4.32 in May, 2.76 in June, drop it even more in August to 2.22. Santana is almost untouchable in the playoffs throwing a 1.29 ERA in October.
Much like the great pitchers of the past 10 years, Johan has a lower ERA following the all-star break. His career earned run average before the break is 3.78 and improves to 2.55 after. The most impressive stat that I could find about Santana - even more than his drastic improvement in ERA - was his win percentage after the all-star break. Santana has recorded a win in 65% of starts following the break, only recording a win in 45% of his starts prior.
Johan has a winning or .500 record at every ballpark in the majors except Minute Maid Park where he is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his only start. Minnesota isn't traveling to Houston this year so Santana won't get a chance to even out his record there, but the Twins have a couple trips to both Fenway and Yankee Stadium on their schedule. Santana has an incredible 0.56 ERA in 16 innings pitched in the Bronx. Unfortunately, Fenway Park has not been sweet on Santana, he has a lifetime 6.89 ERA in 4 games/15.2 innings in Boston. Santana throws his best stuff in Arizona, recording a 0.44 ERA in his games against the Diamondbacks.
If Santana can put together August-type numbers in April, he could top his career best season of 2004 when he recorded 20 wins and had a 2.61 ERA. This year the Twins don't have Francisco Liriano or Brad Radke, but they would benefit greatly if Santana is stellar two months before he usually is. History has shown that Santana might start slow and this could make him a great short. The sounds of Santana can be heard next in Chicago against the White Sox on Sunday.
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