Jason Kidd is the Man (Apr. 30, 07)

Magic Johnson, Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson... Jason Kidd?

Jason Kidd has put up historic numbers that are on par with NBA legends. Jason Kidd has been spectacular during the Nets first round series against Toronto. In game 1 Kidd had 15 assists, and missed a triple-double by only 2 points. In game 2 Kidd missed a triple-double by 3 assists and the Nets lost by 6. In game 3 Kidd recorded a triple-double and became one of only 3 players in post-season history to score 15 points, grab 15 rebounds and drop 15 dimes. Kidd's 19 assists in game 3 were a career playoff best and a Nets franchise record. Kidd's 16 rebounds matched a career playoff best.

After hurting his knee while colliding with Chris Bosh early in the series, Kidd was unsure if he would be able to play in game 3. Not only did he play, Kidd had 14 assists at halftime and registered his 10th career post-season triple-double. Kidd moved past Wilt Chamberlain into a tie for 2nd with Larry Bird for the most post-season triple-doubles in a career (Kidd is still 20 behind Magic for first).

It was the same old story last night in a game 4 blow out win. Through 3 quarters Kidd was 2 rebounds shy of another triple-double, but didn't see much action in the 4th quarter. Despite coming up short of a second consecutive triple-double, Kidd is still averaging one for the series. Only Magic Johnson, Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Fat Lever and Kidd have ever averaged a triple-double in a post-season series. Magic did it 4 times, Wilt did it twice. In 2002, Kidd averaged 17.5, 11.2 and 10.2 in a series that went 6 games, something only Magic and Kidd have been able to accomplish.

Kidd outshines his competition. He is able to dominate without shooting or scoring. During the regular season Kidd led the Nets in rebounds, assists and steals per game.

During his career, Kidd has always managed to out-source the scoring duties. While with New Jersey, Kidd first used Kenyon Martin and now has been able to perfect the alley-oop with the NBA's best "oop" ever Vince Carter. The season following the acquisition of Carter, Kidd averaged 7.3 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game. The Nets have loved the Kidd to Carter combo - both were named all-stars this season. In early April, Kidd and Carter were the first teammates to record a triple-double in the same game since Jordan and Pippen did it in 1989.

Kidd collects assists by setting up his team with high percentage shots. In order to record assists, you need production from teammates - something Kidd demands and gets. He has an especially easy time pumping his assist total because his teammates are able to finish. Much like Steve Nash has consistent finishers in Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion (Nash had 23 assists Sunday), Kidd has Carter and Richard Jefferson.

Carter has pushed his PPG from 22 in March to over 29 in April and has raised his FG % from 41% to just under 48%. Carter has also been a triple-double threat against his old team in the first round and has averaged over 7 assists and 7 rebounds in the month of April. Jefferson missed time between the end of January and the beginning of March due to injury. His point production has gone up from 15 during the regular season to 18 during the month of April. Carter had 27 points and Jefferson had 23 Sunday.

Kidd has been helped greatly by role players Mikki Moore and Bostjan Nachbar. Feeding Moore in the post has almost been an automatic assist. Moore led the NBA in FG %, shooting just over 60% on the year. Nachbar played in 11 games in all of 2006, but has already appeared in 76 games for more than 20 minutes per this season. Nachbar has been on the dish-end of a lot of Kidd's paint penetrations. He has averaged more than 12 points per game since the all-star break and 14 per game in April. What is most impressive about Nachbar is his efficiency on offense. Nachbar averages 45.7% from the floor and 42.3% from beyond the arc and leads the Nets in FT%.

The Nets, who is 9-3 in April, got a little bit of everything from Jason Kidd in a game 4 win Sunday. Steve Kerr described his play as "perfect for a point guard". New Jersey leads the best of 7 series 3 - 1 after the two teams tied the regular season series 2 - 2. New Jersey, who finished 6 games back of Toronto for 1st place in the Atlantic division, will try to close out the Raptors at the Air Canada Centre in game 5 on Tuesday at 7 pm ET.

Nash for MV3? Not Likely. (April 26, 2007)

Steve Nash has already made his mark as one of the NBA's greats. As one of only 11 NBA players to win multiple Most Valuable Player awards, Nash has cemented himself in history. If Nash is voted most valuable for the 3rd straight time, his legendary status will grow.

Steve Nash represents the perfect point guard. He is as great with his left hand as he is with his right, shoots a high percentage from FT and 3, gets everyone involved with precise passing and controls the court with efficient ball handling. Nash is a floor leader and a natural winner. As a a freshman in college, Nash led the #15 seed Santa Clara Broncos over the #2 seed Arizona Wildcats in the first round of the 1993 NCAA tournament. Every time I see the game on ESPN Classic I get chills. Nash's play is beautiful, his spirit for the game and his passion for winning makes my eyes water.

Even though Nash had better numbers this season than he did in in 2005 and 2006 when he won the MVP - Dirk Nowitzki will prevent the three-peat. Despite Nash making his team better and the Suns's bench containing the 6th man of the year (for the 2nd consecutive time), it will be Dirk taking home the 2007 trophy.

Why won't Steve Nash win his 3rd straight?

Michael Jordan (5), Magic Johnson (3), and Moses Malone (3) all won 3 or more MVP awards, but never three in a row. Not even Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who has won the most MVP's in NBA history (6) had a streak of 3 in a row. If Nash wins the trophy this year he would join elite company. Since 1956, only Bill Russell (1961-1963), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-1968) and Larry Bird (1984-1986) have won 3 consecutive MVP's. Voters could be reluctant to vote for Nash because they might feel he isn't on the same level as Russell, Wilt and Bird.

In the season that Russell collected his third in a row, he was in his prime, but his numbers weren't as good as the year that he won his second. Even though it was Wilt scoring 100 in 1962, Russell was named the leagues most valuable. During Wilt's string of 3 straight, he was definitely in his prime - winning the championship in year 2. Both Russell and Chamberlain averaged unreal numbers. Russell averaged over 20 rebounds per game for his career, but there were some seasons that he didn't even win the league rebound title because he was out-boarded by Wilt. Wilt is the only player to ever average 50 points during a season. The Chamberlain/Russell rivalry is one of the greatest of all time and represent 9 out of the first 13 NBA MVP's.

As for the most recent three-peater, Larry Bird, he might be closer to Earth than Russell or Wilt. Never averaging outrageous numbers, Bird got it done in a variety of ways and was one of the deadliest shooters in the league. Known for his 3-ball, Bird could do more than shoot. During Bird's 1984 MVP season, he recorded more than 10 rebounds per game and the Celtics won the NBA Championship. In the third year Bird won the award he didn't do as well statistically, but Boston went on to capture their 2nd NBA championship in 3 years. Bird's three straight MVP's were the only awards he won.

Regardless of history, Nowtizki and Nash were the only players to emerge as MVP contenders this season. In a survey given to the NBA's general managers, Dirk was voted ahead of Nash and Kobe for this years MVP. Dirk received 17 first place votes and Nash received 7 first place votes - survey results were announced last night.

Despite dismal shooting in a game 1 loss to the Warriors, Dirk played better last night shooting 7/15 and scoring 22 and will likely hoist the Maurice Podoloff trophy for what he did during the regular season. Nowitzki led the Mavericks to a 67 win season which was the 4th best record in league history. Before the playoffs started it was the Mavericks who had the best odds of representing the Western Conference in the finals and winning the NBA title.

Dirk is going to win the trophy this season much like how Kevin Garnett won it in 2004. During the 2003-2004 season, the Timberwolves had the NBA's best record and therefore Garnett was honored as league MVP. MVP runner-up Kobe Bryant may have lost to KG in the MVP race that season, but he got his revenge by taking out KG's T'Wolves in game 6 of the Western Conference finals.

Nash may experience the same feelings that Kobe felt if Dirk wins the award and the Mavericks match-up with the Suns for a trip to the finals. Nash deserves MV3, but voters might not want to put Nash on the 3-straight pedestal. A vote NOT for Nash is a vote for Dirk. Some voters may vote for Dirk because they prefer to recognize him for his body of work over the regular season and over the course of his career.

If Nash wins #3, we will be in the midst of experiencing one of the most historical MVP runs in NBA history.

When Barry Bonds Breaks the Record, I Won't Care (April 23, 2007)

Barry Bonds hit his 740th career home run Sunday putting him that much closer to breaking Hank Aaron's record 755 career home runs.
The scrutiny surrounding Bonds breaking the record is unreal. He obviously enhanced his body into a home run making machine through the help of performance enhancing drugs. He will break the record. He's only 15 home runs away ousting Hank and becoming the record holder. It's time to accept that the most heralded record in sports will be owned by a quote unquote cheater.

I personally don't care.

It's not about cheating, it's not even about using performance enhancing drugs, it's about being shady. Barry Bonds is the most shady athlete in all of sports.

Let me define "shady". I'm not talking about shady as a in giving shade or a shadow, but as in having questionable character. His relationship with the media, teammates and fans make him out to be a cold-hearted, hard individual. Whenever he is questioned about his behavior or any steroid subject he throws out a smart-aleck remark. After countless interviews, it makes me think that he is guilty of bending the rules. I don't even care that he cheated, he's just a dubious individual.

This off-season Bonds negotiated for a little more than $15,500,000 for his services. At age 42, some thought that he couldn't get it done and might not even break the record. Well sure - Bonds played in 130 games last season, but he played in only 14 during all of 2005. So far this season he's appeared in 15 games.

The conversation has turned from if he'll break the record to when.

Bonds has been at bat 46 times and has belted 6 homers. Let's say Bonds plays in 15 more games and has 46 more at bats. Projecting him to get 6 more home runs he would be at 446 making him 9 away. 90 more at bats would be roughly 22.5 games if you give him 4 at bats per game. In addition to the 15 games, rounding the 22.5 up to 25 games, in case of slump/pitchers walking him/sitting out 3 games - Bonds will hold baseballs home run record after he plays another 40 games.

From today - 136 at bats/ 34 games, 1.3 home runs every 10 at bats - 17.6 home runs. I'm rounding the 34 games to 40 because even though he should come up with 17 home runs after 40 games and he only needs 15 to break it, I think he'll slow down. Bonds might take a couple games off and he could see less strikes leading to more walks. Looking at the schedule, the Giants are off Monday, but still have 2 games in April and 30 games in May. Exactly 40 games and roughly 160 at bats from now, Bonds and the Giants will be finishing up a 3 game home stand vs Oakland. The Giants play another 3 game home stand against Toronto from June 11th - June 14th before heading to Fenway Park for the start of a 3 game series against the Red Sox.

Barry Bonds will break Hank Aaron's all-time home run record somewhere between the Oakland series on June 8th and the Red Sox series on June 17th.

If Bonds continues his hot hitting, we could see the record fall in early June. It's hard to track trends on home runs for someone who's hit 740. In 2002, Bonds hit 18 home runs in April and May and hit his 21st in the first weeks of June. In 2003, Barry had 8 homers in April and it took him all the way up to mid-July for him hit his 21st. In 2004, Barry hit 10 home runs in April, but only had 10 in May and June combined. Last season Bonds was slow and steady, 3 in April, 4 in May, 4 in June, 3 in July before 5 in August and 7 in September.

I'll be watching when Barry breaks the record and will probably remember the moment forever. I think that his record will fall someday to someone else so I don't care that Barry did it using performance enhancing drugs. I won't mind that the record will belong to a roid user because I've accepted the steroid stars for who they are and the era for what it's worth. The only thing that will bug me is the way Barry has acted. I respect Bonds for his ability to hit home runs. I respect the fact that he's still in the league right now. I even respect that he did whatever it took (substances) to stay on top of his game and up with competition (McGwire).

When the time comes and the record breaking home run goes deep and gets outa here, I hope the fans respect Barry and he respects the fans. If Barry breaks the record and acts shady about it, I'll have a hard time respecting that.

NBA Ready for Stardom, Responsibility (4/23/07)

The 2007 playoffs are underway and have already provided excitement. LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Melo, Nash, Dirk, T-Mac, Kidd, Duncan, AI and Shaq were all on display this weekend. The NBA stars come to light in the playoffs, but it is the role players who use playoff time to showcase their skills and earn their own spot in the limelight. This weekend we saw the emergence of future stars Luol Deng, Deron Williams, Leandro Barbosa, and Devin Harris.

On Saturday afternoon Chicago's Luol Deng introduced himself to the casual NBA viewer.

If you watch pro basketball, or even college basketball, you should have known about Luol Deng. Anyone who goes to Duke on a basketball scholarship is obviously talented. Deng who is from the dinka tribe - the same tribe as NBA great Manute Bol - wants to prove that the Sudan can produce a player who has more game than just height and shot-blocking. Deng does it all on the court. He has improved his averages each season since entering the league in 2004 as the 7th overall pick. Deng has the ability to score (over 17 per game), get rebounds (7.2 per), make smart passes (2.1 assists per), shoot well from the field (51.7%) and line (77.7%) as well as shut down the opposing teams best player. His 33 points on Saturday was his second highest output of the season (Deng had 38 vs Portland on March 26th). The Bulls, who have built through the draft, are known for having great guard play with Kirk Hinrich (7th overall in 2003), Chris Duhan (28th overall in 2004) and Ben Gordon (3rd overall in 2004). This is all without mentioning this years "free" draft pick Thabo Sefolosha who will attempt to shut down Wade again in Game two, Tuesday at 7 on TNT.

Utah didn't win game one on Saturday against Houston, but they shouldn't be worried.

After barely missing the playoffs last season, Utah hopes to take advantage of having improved chemistry and more maturity. Deron Williams has only been in the league for 2 years, but he already looks like a seasoned vet. His calm and collected leadership allows the Jazz to function smoothly on offense. Saturday was a perfect example of why Deron Williams went 3rd overall in the 2005 NBA draft. Against the Rockets in Game 1, Williams didn't appear like a playoff virgin. Although the Rockets took game 1, Williams had an outstanding indivdual performance. Only 3 players have ever recorded a triple double in their first ever post-season game, and Williams almost became the 4th Saturday. LeBron James had 31, 11 and 11 in his debut last season. The two others: Magic Johnson in 1980 and Johnny McCarthy in 1960. Williams missed a triple-double by 1 assist and 1 rebound (Williams finished with 15 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists). The Jazz need another solid game from Williams, as they try to even the series TONIGHT in Houston at 9:30 pm ET on TNT.

The Suns outlasted the Lakers Sunday with the help from 6th man of the year candidate Leandro Barbosa.

Barbosa was excellent scoring a playoff career high 26 points. It wasn't the amount of points that Barbosa scored that made an impact on the game, it was his ability to use his speed to slice the defense. Barbosa is known as the "Brazilian blur" because he often runs right past defenders with his blazing speed. It showed Sunday as he continuously ran down loose balls, penetrated into the paint and used back door cuts to get open lay-ups. Since the Suns have so many different scoring options, Barbosa benefits. Barbosa has the ability to get points because defenders are hesitant to leave their man to help out. To beat L.A., the Suns will need players like Barbosa, James Jones and Kurt Tomas to step up for a very short Phoenix bench. There wasn't a question of seeds yesterday when the Suns took over the game late, outscoring the Lakers 21-10 in the 4th quarter. Game 2 is Tuesday at 10:30 ET on TNT.

Even though it was Baron Davis who stood out and Golden State took game 1, Dallas's Devin Harris seemed to keep the Mavericks from getting blown out.

Dirk didn't exactly make 'Dirk 4 MVP' supporters look very smart Sunday. Despite the loss, the Mavericks should bounce back thanks to players like Devin Harris. Time after time I watched Harris drive down the lane and lay in an easy bucket. Harris scored 19 points, had 2 assists and 2 steals along with 3 rebounds off the bench last night. Harris was picked 5th overall in 2004 by the Washington Wizards (2 picks before Deng) but was traded to Dallas as part of the Antwaan Jamison deal. Much like Barbosa, Harris has incredible speed and puts defenders on their heels almost every possession. Dallas will try to even the series in game two Wednesday.

The playoffs are where legends are born. It is during a heated game 7 that heroes arise. Veteran players who are already established studs - like Kobe and Iverson - are expected to step up in crunch time. Role players fighting for minutes can make a name for themselves by over-performing in the post-season. Bailing out Michael Jordan in crucial playoff moments gave star-power to role players like John Paxon and Steve Kerr. In the playoffs, being at the right place at the right time is important, but having the intelligence to make the right decision or knock down the key shot can propel players to infamy.

Deng, Williams, Barbosa and Harris are all players who could come up big for title contending teams.

Who Will Win the NBA Finals? (April 17, 2007)

In the 2003 - 2004 season, Dallas and San Antonio shared the best record in the NBA. It was the Spurs who got the tie-breaker and they went on to beat Dallas in 6 games in the conference finals. The Spurs took care of New Jersey to capture the title.

Since that year, the team with the best record has struggled in the post-season. In '03-'04 it was the T'Wolves who had the NBA's best record and they went on to lose in the Western Conference Finals. In '04-'05, Phoenix won 62 games and had the NBA's best record, though San Antonio won its 3rd title, 2nd in 3 years, edging Detroit in game 7. Last year continued the trend. The Spurs were NBA's best record-wise, but it was Miami - who was 12 games back of Detroit for best in the East - that went on to win the 'chip.

The best record this year belongs to the Dallas Mavericks. Will the trend continue?

I think Dallas has all the parts to get to the Finals and win it all. I just don't think they will.

Here are the NBA Playoff teams ranked according to the Pythagorean expectation. This original formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won. Dean Oliver converted this theory for basketball. Oliver used [Points For] divided by [Points For + Points Against] to equate a win percentage. Not including tonight's games, here is how the 16 playoff teams rank:

1. San Antonio - 52.3%
2. Phoenix Suns - 52.0%
3. Dallas Mavericks - 51.9%
4. Chicago Bulls - 51.3%
5. Houston Rockets - 51.1%
6. Detroit Pistons - 51.0%
7. Cleveland Cavaliers - 50.9%
8. Utah Jazz - 50.6%
9. Toronto Raptors - 50.3%
10. Denver Nuggets - 50.3%
11. Orlando Magic - 50.1%
12. Los Angeles Lakers - 49.9%
13. Miami Heat - 49.8%
14. Washington Wizards - 49.8%
15. New Jersey Nets - 49.7%
16. Golden State Warriors - 49.7%

Over the last couple of days of the regular season, these numbers may change slightly. I have taken into consideration other statistics that could effect the way the playoffs are played in order to determine who will win it all. It is pretty clear that the team representing the Western Conference will be San Antonio, Phoenix or Dallas. In the East, it's a little more open - with Detroit being the favorite.

Factors that might be important to consider when putting money down on your Finals Champion are offensive rebounding, assists to turnovers and attempting more free throw than your opponent. T

he best teams are the ones who don't turn the ball over and find open men for easy hoops. Of the top teams, Phoenix, Detroit, Toronto, San Antonio and Utah have the best assists to turnover ratios. The worst: Chicago, Miami and Cleveland.

Second chances in the NBA playoffs are just as important as controlling the ball. Offensive rebounds allow a team to achieve more offensive possessions and therefore more chances to score. Teams that out-rebound their opponents on the offensive end are Cleveland (+2.8), Utah (+2.6) and Chicago (+1.1). Teams who grab less offensive boards than their opponents are Phoenix (-3.2), Golden State (-1.7) and Miami (-1.2). The Suns shoot the best FG % in the NBA, so by not missing a lot, they don't get as many rebounds.

Shaq claims that he makes them when they count. Free throw attempts in the post-season mean three things. 1) If your team is getting to the line, it often means they are being agressive and assertive on offense. 2) More free throws usually means more fouls on the other team, maybe on their best player. 3) More attempts at the FT line can result in points with the clock stopped - critical in late game situations.

The teams that reach the foul line more than their opponent's could be more likely to reach the NBA Finals. Denver (+6.2), Washington (+3.1) and San Antonio (+2.7) see the stripe most out of the playoff teams. Teams who get to the line less than their opponents are Golden State (-3.7), Dallas (-2.0) and Chicago (-1.5).

I'm taking the Phoenix Suns over the Chicago Bulls in the 2007 version of the NBA Finals. Even though the Spurs finish first in the formula, I think the Suns have the best chance of winning it all.

Blyleven Deserves a Circle

A tribute post to Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame hopeful, Bert Blyleven.

Bert "BE HOME" Blyleven, as Chris Berman so graciously calls him, has been "home" in Minnesota as a Twins announcer since 1996. Blyleven's thing is that he circles fans that come to the Metrodome with signs reading "Circle Me, Bert." Fans hold signs directed at Blyleven hoping that the camera will find them, and much like John Madden uses the telestrator to scribble all over the TV - Bert will circle them and declare "you have hereby been circled". Home or away, if you are a Twins fan with a "Circle Me, Bert" sign, you have a good shot at getting on TV.

Bert is known for his humorous commentary and has had countless off-color comments. One example came when Bert thought that he was doing a show, tape-delay and used the F-word after stumbling over some of his introduction. Blyleven stopped his commentary and said, "We're gonna hafta do this f-ing thing over again, cause I just f-ed up." Anthony LaPanta leaned over and informed Bert they were broadcasting live. Another example of Blyleven's personality came during a broadcast in 2006. Blyleven appeared as himself in the 1990 Jim Belushi movie "Taking Care of Business". During the broadcast, Blyleven needed to be reminded by a technician what the name of the movie was because Bert had forgotten it.

Blyleven played a very storied career. He entered the league in 1970 where he played 6 seasons in Minnesota before he was traded to the Rangers, then Pirates and then again later to the Indianas. Bert returned to the Twins following a 19 win season in 1984 and finished his career as a California Angel. His ERA was never worse than 3.00 between 1971-1977. His curveball is considered one of the best in the HISTORY of baseball. With 3,701 strikeouts, Blyleven is one of just 13 pitchers who has thrown 3,000 strikeouts - only Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton have more.

Blyleven was a starter on World Series Champions in both the AL and NL (Pittsburgh in 1979 and Minnesota in 1987). His post-season record was 5-1, his ERA - 2.47 in 47 innings of playoff baseball. He officially retired in 1993 finishing his career with a record of 287-250. His career ERA was 3.31, he had 60 shut-outs and 242 complete games (24 complete games in 1986).

Today, Blyleven is considered the BEST pitcher who is NOT in the Hall of Fame. This post is more a recognition of his greatness than a pitch to get him in. The last starting pitcher to get a bid to the hall was Nolan Ryan in the early 90's. Unfortunately, Bert's career was injury-plagued, he sat out most of '82 and '83, was named comeback player of the year in 1989 and missed all of 1991. He began his career on a very lousy Twins team where he was the ace of the staff (and won the rookie of the year), but didn't record many wins.

Voters might not like that he only had one 20-win season and never won a Cy Young award. The bench-mark for starting pitchers to receive an automatic bid is 300 wins. In 1993, Bert tried out for the Twins but Tom Kelly decided not to retain Blyleven because "...the team was going in a different direction". Even though there were other teams interested in his services, Bert retired after 22 years of work only 13 wins shy of 300.

If he would have gotten more run support from his offense during the early part of his career or avoided injuries in the later part, he might have won 320-330 games (330 wins is good enough for 10th all-time). Blyleven has said that 100 of his losses were by 1 run, "there weren't a lot of blowouts". In 1980, Blyleven only allowed 3 runs twice in his first 10 starts, yet his record was 0-4. In Bert's career, he actually had 15 wins by the score of 1-0.

In 2007, the percentage of people voting Bert into the hall was 47.7% (he needs 75%). There are over 60 pitchers in the HOF and Bert ranks 24th all time in wins, 17th since 1900. Bert has been eligible for the hall of fame since 1996 and he will lose eligibility in 2012.

Obviously they don't vote for the HOF in April, but as I watch Twins baseball this season I will hear the voice of Bert Blyleven. Like most Twins fans, I am in support of Bert getting a bid into the HOF. Blyleven hopes that voters will circle him on the next ballot, much like fans hope Bert circles them.

I would like to thank BertBelongs.com, BertBlyleven.com, BaseballArchives.com, Wikipedia.com and MLB.com for help with this post.

Changing of the *STARS* (4/9/07)

My childhood was defined by the superstars of each major sport. As players like Roger Clemens weigh retirement, and players like Sammy Sosa return to the MLB spotlight, I began to wonder, who is the next Sosa? Randy Johnson? Mike Piazza? or Frank Thomas? Which stars of yesterday will compare to the stars of tomorrow?

I have evaluated the all-star rosters and statistics of players over the past 10-15 years at each position. I have also come up with players who could become the superstars that define this next generation.

Starting Pitchers: Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Clemens vs Santana/Liriano/Kazmir/Verlander

Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson are to pitching what Magic Johnson and John Stockton were to passing. Past stars David Wells, Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez are still in the league but will consider retirement soon. With the help of the Turner Broadcast Station, the "tomahawk chop" defined baseball. When I was young I actually thought that the National Anthem was referring to Atlanta "..and the home of the braveS". John Smoltz is all that is left from one of the best rotations that included future hall of famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz.

It's hard to speculate which pitchers last as long a Tom Glavine or a Greg Maddux. The newer generation of pitchers often deal with injuries that can sometimes destroy a career. Minnesota Twins super-stud rookie Francisco Liriano has to miss this entire season due to an elbow injury. Liriano had a break-out season last year winning 12 games and throwing a 2.16 ERA. The future is bright for the Twins if Liriano can pitch as well when he returns. With Santana, Nathan and Liriano - The Twins could have this generations Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. At only 23, Scott Kazmir is another young pitcher who is primed for stardom. Kazmir has won 10 games in his first two season. Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander are both just 24 years old and could turn out to be perennial all-stars. Verlander won rookie of the year last year.

Relief Pitchers:

Trevor Hoffman/Mariano Rivera vs Huston Street/Francisco Rodriquez

At age 39 and 37 respectively, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera are still getting it done. Since 2004, Trevor Hoffman has consistently been at the top of the MLB saves list at seasons end. These two players will be first ballot hall of famers. When you think of the word "save" you think of Hoffman and Rivera - Rivera more for clutch pitching in October. It is hard to imagine that the next generation of closers can live up to the performance of these stars.

I should mention Joe Nathan as a future star because he is the leagues most promising closer next to the two mentioned above, but he's already 32. I decided to look at the younger group of closers. Huston Street is only 23 and is already being considered the "next Hoffman". Last year his 37 saves was better than both Nathan and Rivera. Last years save leader was Francisco Rodriguez. Rodriguez isn't afraid to leave his body exposed to produce the perfect pitch and has already managed to save 92 games over the last two seasons. With 5 years of MLB experience at age 25 - He has a promising career ahead.

First Base:

Frank Thomas/Mark McGwire/Mo Vaughn vs Pujols/Ryan Howard/Justin Morneau

The Big Hurt, McGwire, and Mo Vaughn were 3 players I can remember emulating when playing baseball growing up. When it comes to the home-run, they pretty much defined the generation. It is obvious the controversy surrounding McGwire, but the last 10 years of baseball wouldn't be the same without him. Thomas and Vaughn might not be remember statistically as the best to play first base, but they helped define the generation and position.

Albert Pujols' numbers rival those of the greatest players of all time. Like Nike says for LeBron James we could say the same for Albert Pujols: "We are all witnesses". I tried to put Derrek Lee in this group, but because of his injury last year and his age being 31, he can't be next generations star. Ryan Howard burst onto the scene last year by smashing a league leading 58 home-runs. He could become this generations "big hurt". AL MVP Justin Morneau - at only 25, could silently become this generations best 1st baseman. He has a great eye at the plate and plays a leadership role on an up and coming Twins team. Morneau could use the pitching Liriano and Santana as well as the hitting Mauer to win multiple AL MVP awards and World Series titles.

Second Base:

Craig Biggio/Roberto Alomar vs Chase Utley/Robinson Cano

The second base was the hardest base to fill as far as "stars" go. The last 10 years has lacked a true star at this position. Researching past all-star games I found that Roberto Alomar won the 1998 MVP, and it's hard to ignore the influence that Roberto and Sandy had on the past generation of baseball.

At only 28, Chase Utley might have a better chance of impacting this next generation than any other 2nd baseman. I left Alfonso Soriano off the list of next superstars at 2nd base because he is one of many players that falls in between what I consider the past stars and future stars. Soriano is more like Derrek Lee and Yankees Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez - they are current stars. Another Yankee could turn out to be a future star amongst current stars. Robinson Cano, at age 24, is already being relied on heavily in New York and he the 3rd highest priced 2nd baseman on PROTRADE.

Short Stop: Barry Larkin/Jimmy Rollins vs Jose Reyes/Hanley Ramirez

The short-stop has lacked stars ever since Cal Ripken moved from SS to 3rd base in the late 1990's. I almost added Cal to this list because he was named the MVP of the 2001 all-star game but decided he was too old to mention. I did decided that Barry Larkin was worthy of adding because he was a multiple all-star MVP award winner and he played his last game in 2004. It appears that the next generation might be a little more talented.

Jose Reyes has already made a huge impact in the league and he is only 23. He does everything and contributes in almost all fantasy stat categories. Reyes batted .300 and led the majors in steals last year. Another future star Marlin Hanley Ramirez. Regardless of his current hamstring injury, Ramirez has the potential to be a star for years to come - he's only 24. Over the past 4 seasons Ichiro Suzuki is the only player to have more hits than Michael Young - at age 31, Young was too old to be a future star.

Third Base:

Chipper Jones/Bobby Bonilla vs Miguel Cabrera/David Wright Chipper Jones's stance in the batter box makes him a player that will be remembered from this generation. Bobby Bonilla became the highest paid player in baseball in 1993 and was a member of the 1997 Florida Marlins world series title.

This generation is definitely more complete at the 3rd base position. I would group Alex Rodriguez in the "now" category of stars, so he didn't make this list. Miguel Cabrera is a player that definitely deserves recognition. His crazy-hot start this season (batting .500, 7 RBIs) has put his name in the headlines, but it is only a matter of time before his name is on a hall of fame ballot. David Wright is young and should participate in multiple all-star games in his career.

Catcher:

Mike Piazza/Ivan Rodriquez/Sandy Alomar vs Joe Mauer/Brian McCann

Mike Piazza can be found in outfield or at first now, but he will always be remembered as a catcher. Piazza and "Pudge" Rodriguez defined the catcher position and will be first ballot hall of famers. I include Sandy Alomar on this list because while I was researching I discovered that Sandy won the all-star MVP one year after his brother Roberto won it.

Joe Mauer and Brian McCann are already stars. They are so young that they are going to be seen as this generations Piazza and Pudge. Mauer led the majors in hitting in 2006 batting .347 - McCann batted .333. Both of these catchers are the highest priced on PROTRADE - for obvious reasons.

Out Field:

Bonds/Sosa/Griffey vs Grady Sizemore/Carl Crawford/Adam Dunn Bonds, Sosa and Griffey represent the majority of the home-run generation. Sosa and Bonds will go down in history for multiple reasons. Griffey could have broken a bunch of records had he stayed healthy and might have been up there with Bonds on the all-time home run list. He was named to the greatest players of the 90's by major league baseball and is currently tied for 10th on the all time home-run list with 563.

Grady Sizemore, Carl Crawford and Adam Dunn don't sound like they deserve to be in the same breath as Bonds, Sosa and Griffey. Adam Dunn has started this season hot, but that's not why he made this list. At age 27, he has had back-to-back season with 40 homers. Grady Sizemore has also started this season hot (3 HR), but his potential for greatness make him a candidate for next generations best outfielder. Carl Crawford has increased his home-run output in each season since entering the major league in 2002. More experience will help Crawford become a star.

The stars of yesterday are starting to fade as the stars of tomorrow shine brighter. Get to know these next generation hall of famers. There has been a changing of the *STARS* in Major League Baseball.

The Race to the NBA Playoffs (April 6, 2007)

This year the playoff format will be different. The NBA revised the playoff seeding system for this season. Since there are only 3 divisions in both the East and West, the three division winners and top non-division winner are the recipients of the top four seeds. The seeds will be based on record and will have nothing to do with the conference. This avoids having the two best records in the same division meeting in the 2nd round - like last year when Dallas beat San Antonio in the semi-finals.

The Mavs and Spurs had the two best records in the NBA last season, but because they are both in the Southwest division, San Antonio was given the #1 seed and by default Dallas was shafted with the 4th seed. If Dallas and San Antonio finish with the two best records this season, the team with the 2nd best record will get the 2nd best seed. Thanks David Stern!

On March 30th, Cleveland looked like they were about to lock up the 2nd seed and today they don't even have home court advantage in the first round. It appears that things might even change more in the final games of the season.

Regardless of seeding, a first round upset could occur and vault an unsuspecting roster into the ProTrade spotlight. It is obvious that you should have already purchased players on Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland. But what happens if one of these teams is taken to the limit and gets knocked out in the first round ala Mutombo's Nuggets over Kemp's Sonics of 1994???

This year I doubt we will see a #8 beat a #1, but because of how evenly matched the Eastern conference is, we could see upsets. So far 10 teams have clinched a spot in the NBA playoffs:

Eastern Conference
1. Detroit
2. Chicago
3. Toronto
4. Miami
5. Cleveland

Western Conference
1. Dallas
2. Phoenix
3. San Antonio
4. Utah
5. Houston

These teams will likely enter the playoffs with the tag of favorite in the first round. What about the rest? Which team, if any, is capable of pulling the first round upset?

Here are the best of the rest:

Western Conference
6. LA Lakers
7. Denver
8. LA Clippers
9. Golden State
10. New Orl/OKC

Eastern Conference
6. Washington
7. New Jersey
8. Orlando
9. Indiana
10. New York

In the West, the last 3 teams in will likely be the Nuggets, Lakers and Clippers. Both the Lakers and Nuggets could compete with Phoenix and San Antonio. The Nuggets and Lakers have pretty much no shot at catching Houston for the 6th spot, so they are going to have to pull an upset of a lifetime in order to make it out of round 1. If San Antonio is too old to handle Kobe and the younger Lakers roster, LAL could take down SAS. Last season, the Lakers took Phoenix to the limit and can use that experience to knock out San Antonio.

The Eastern Conference is the conference we are more likely to see a "Denver over Seattle" type upset. The Pacers have great potential to turn out to be full of good buys. Indiana is 1.5 games behind the Magic for the last playoff spot in the East. Indiana has been playing much better than Orlando as of late. The Magic have lost 3 out of their last 4 games. After tonight's win at Charlotte, Indiana has 4 road games and 3 home games remaining, the same situation as Orlando.

If the Pacers get the 8th spot, they might not make it to the second round, but they have a couple good players that you might want to consider purchasing now:
- Danny Granger is on pace to make $132 and he is selling for $123.
- Mike Dunleavy has already earned $113 this season and is selling for $122.
- Jaamal Tinsley has already made $116 and is only selling for $119 - overlooked by many.

New Jersey and Washington have pretty much locked up playoff spots. Washington is an interesting team. It is time for players like DeShawn Stevenson - out of High School, and Antonio Daniels - out of Bowling Green, to step up. They could turn out to produce more money than they are currently projected to. Washington might play Cleveland in a first round playoff re-match of last year, so don't expect them to get past LeBron with no Gilbert Arenas or Caron Butler.

I realize that teams like Dallas, Phoenix and Detroit are the best bets to make it to the NBA Finals. It is important to remember that there are upsets in round 1. Just because every team that has won 60 games as fast as Dallas has went on to win the title doesn't mean it will happen. The lowest seed to ever win it all was Hakeem's defending champion Rockets who were the 6th seed.

SOME NBA FINALS TRIVIA:
- Shaquille O'Neal's teams (the Orlando Magic, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Miami Heat) are a collective 25-0 in all NBA playoff series when his teams have won the first game of a series (Wikipedia).
- Boston Celtics great Bill Russell won a record 11 championships.
- Michael Jordan has the highest career post-season scoring average (33.4).
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has play the most post-season games (237) and minutes (8,851).

Short Santana's Slow Starts (PROTRADE.com)

MLB's best pitcher is the most expensive pitcher on PROTRADE. Johan Santana is currently being sold at $40.00 more per share than the next most expensive pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka - who is another short story altogether. Santana should be shorted in a portion of your portfolio. Not only should you short Santana because his current price is unreachable, but you should consider shorting Santana because of his historically slow starts to the season.

It's rare when a pitcher can get it done from opening day to game 7 of the world series. With 162 games on the schedule, a starting pitcher in any rotation is likely to feel fatigued. Pitching better towards the end of the year is more important than pitching well in April. Much like Carlos Santana has mastered the art of the electric guitar, Johan has mastered the art of getting it done during the most critical part of the season and during the push for the pennant.

Since coming into the league, Johan has struggled in the early part of the season. Last season, Johan lost 3 games in April and had a 4.45 ERA - not exactly Cy Young numbers. Santana only lost 3 more games the rest of the year and ended up with the pitcher's triple crown and the Cy Young award.

Historically dominant pitchers pitch well from start to finish. Historical great Greg Maddux is known for consistency as well as dominance. Since 1987, Maddux has recorded a 3.10 ERA and won 47% of his starts before the mid-summer classic. In his career following the all-star game, Maddux wins in 52% of his starts and lowers his ERA to 3.00.

Since Curt Schilling's debut in 1988, he has won 51% of his starts following the all-star game as opposed to 48% before. Schilling's ERA is also higher before (3.54) the all-star break than after (3.34). Other pitchers like Chris Carpenter and Tom Glavine have also had more success in the months of June, July and August than in April and May.

I would much rather have a pitcher who starts the season off cool and heats up, than a pitcher who starts off hot and cools down. So far in Dontrelle Willis's career, he has had more success at the beginning of the year than he has at the end. Following the all-star break, Willis has only won 38% of his starts. His career ERA is 3.13 prior to the all-star break and goes up to 3.77 after. The D-Train tends to slow down in July and August. Although Willis has been able to find strength and play better in his career in September, he hasn't been able to record a win in two starts in October.

At 1-0, Johan Santana needs to start quick in 2007 in order to shake the reputation of being vulnerable early on. Santana has 79 wins in his 7 year career, only 18% of those have come before June. The heat of the Summer is when Johan gets hot, 63% of his career wins are in June, July and August.

Unlike the D-Train, as the season goes on, the S-Train lowers his ERA. In Santana's career he has had a 4.47 ERA in April. He has managed to drop his ERA to 4.32 in May, 2.76 in June, drop it even more in August to 2.22. Santana is almost untouchable in the playoffs throwing a 1.29 ERA in October.

Much like the great pitchers of the past 10 years, Johan has a lower ERA following the all-star break. His career earned run average before the break is 3.78 and improves to 2.55 after. The most impressive stat that I could find about Santana - even more than his drastic improvement in ERA - was his win percentage after the all-star break. Santana has recorded a win in 65% of starts following the break, only recording a win in 45% of his starts prior.

Johan has a winning or .500 record at every ballpark in the majors except Minute Maid Park where he is 0-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his only start. Minnesota isn't traveling to Houston this year so Santana won't get a chance to even out his record there, but the Twins have a couple trips to both Fenway and Yankee Stadium on their schedule. Santana has an incredible 0.56 ERA in 16 innings pitched in the Bronx. Unfortunately, Fenway Park has not been sweet on Santana, he has a lifetime 6.89 ERA in 4 games/15.2 innings in Boston. Santana throws his best stuff in Arizona, recording a 0.44 ERA in his games against the Diamondbacks.

If Santana can put together August-type numbers in April, he could top his career best season of 2004 when he recorded 20 wins and had a 2.61 ERA. This year the Twins don't have Francisco Liriano or Brad Radke, but they would benefit greatly if Santana is stellar two months before he usually is. History has shown that Santana might start slow and this could make him a great short. The sounds of Santana can be heard next in Chicago against the White Sox on Sunday.